Officials have largely dismissed those concerns, despite a
recent uptick in cases across Europe, insisting that high immunization rates
will help dampen future waves of disease.
Based on how quickly new variants have arisen, some experts
suggest the next one could arrive as early as May. They warn that U.K.
authorities should be using the time to prepare, rather than winding down their
pandemic defenses.
Mark Woolhouse, an epidemiologist at the University of
Edinburgh, called it “an unfortunate pattern” that has been seen repeatedly
throughout the outbreak.
“Every time one wave of COVID passes, the government acts as
if it’s the end of the pandemic,” he said.
Without testing and monitoring, new clusters or signs that
the virus is evolving could be missed, Woolhouse said.
“I do not understand why governments are not learning this
lesson,” he said.
Last week, the U.K. announced it was suspending funding for
one of the world’s biggest and most comprehensive coronavirus monitoring
programs, in addition to ditching research that tracks in real time symptoms
and infections in health workers. And as of April, free COVID-19 tests for most
people in England will also end.
As most COVID-19 restrictions are relaxed across Europe,
including Austria, Britain, Denmark, Germany and France, the numbers of
infections have inched higher in recent days. The uptick is driven in part by
the slightly more infectious omicron descendant BA.2 and by people largely
abandoning masks and gathering in bigger groups.
In the last two weeks, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths
have both risen slightly in Britain.
British Health Secretary Sajid Javid described the increase
as “expected” and the country as “in a very good position.”
Numerous health leaders in the U.K. have questioned the
wisdom of abandoning free testing and measures like stopping financial support
for people with infections who are isolating.
“The government cannot wave a magic wand and pretend the
threat has disappeared entirely,” said Matthew Taylor, chief executive of
Britain’s National Health Service.
Other officials, however, have pointed out that the testing
and monitoring programs are enormously pricey. Last month, Swedish authorities
halted wide-scale testing, saying that the cost and relevance was no longer
justifiable.
“If we were to have extensive testing adapted to everyone
who has COVID-19, that would mean half a billion kronor a week (about $55
million) and 2 billion a month ($220 million),” said Swedish Public Health
Agency chief Karin Tegmark Wisell last month, when their testing programs were
shelved.
U.K. officials have now apparently made the same
calculation.
“The question is whether we can afford to keep using these
expensive tools if it appears that COVID is becoming endemic,” said Julian
Tang, a virologist at the University of Leicester.
He said it was likely the virus was evolving into a more
transmissible and less dangerous form, but acknowledged that process could take
years — and that we would probably face sporadic surges until that happens.
Salim Abdool Karim, an infectious diseases epidemiologist at
the University of KwaZulu-Natal who previously advised the South African
government, said there were clues in COVID-19’s track record that allow for an
“educated guess.” As the country that first detected omicron and where it
spread first, South Africa has been closely monitored by many European and other
public health scientists to see what might come next in the pandemic.
Karim predicts the next big surge of disease could come
within weeks, noting that South Africa had been hit with COVID-19 surges every
three months, meaning the next wave could start in May.
Dr. Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at Britain’s
University of East Anglia, said we would likely see another variant or two
every year, based on how rapidly coronaviruses mutate.
Still, many experts don’t think future waves of COVID-19
will be as brutal as the past.
“We’re in a different place, because we have vaccines and we
know what works,” said Dr. Wafaa El-Sadr, chair of global health at Columbia
University.
“In the meantime, it is the wrong time to dismantle the
strong public health systems we’ve relied on throughout the pandemic,” El-Sadr
said. -AP
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