According to the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer,
international tourism saw a 182 percent year-on-year increase in January-March
2022, with destinations worldwide welcoming an estimated 117 million
international arrivals compared to 41 million in Q1 2021. Of the extra 76
million international arrivals for the first three months, about 47 million
were recorded in March, showing that the recovery is gathering pace.
However, Europe and Americas are leading the recovery.
UNWTO data shows that during the first quarter of 2022,
Europe welcomed almost four times as many international arrivals (+280 percent)
as in Q1 of 2021, with results driven by strong intra-regional demand. In the
Americas arrivals more than doubled (+117 percent) in the same three months.
But, arrivals in Europe and the Americas were still 43 percent and 46 percent
below 2019 levels respectively.
The Middle East (+132 percent) and Africa (+96 percent) also
saw strong growth in Q1 2022 compared to 2021, but arrivals remained 59 percent
and 61 percent below 2019 levels respectively. Asia and the Pacific recorded a
64% increase over 2021 but again, levels were 93 percent below 2019 numbers as
several destinations remained closed to non-essential travel.
By subregion, the Caribbean and Southern Mediterranean
Europe continue to show the fastest rates of recovery. In both, arrivals
recovered to nearly 75 percent of 2019 levels, with some destinations reaching
or exceeding pre-pandemic levels.
With all the positive turns, destinations opening up faster.
Although international tourism remains 61 percent below 2019
levels, the gradual recovery is expected to continue throughout 2022, as more
destinations ease or lift travel restrictions and pent-up demand is unleashed.
As of 2 June 2, 2022, 45 destinations (of which 31 are in Europe) had no
COVID-19 related restrictions in place. In Asia, an increasing number of
destinations have started to ease those restrictions.
Despite these positive prospects, a challenging economic
environment coupled with the military offensive of the Russian Federation in
Ukraine pose a downside risk to the ongoing recovery of international tourism.
The Russian offensive on Ukraine seems to have had a limited direct impact on
overall results so far, although it is disrupting travel in Eastern Europe.
However, the conflict is having major economic repercussions globally,
exacerbating already high oil prices and overall inflation and disrupting
international supply chains, which results in higher transport and
accommodation costs for the tourism sector.
The UNWTO urges destinations to export revenues for faster
recovery as spending rises.
The latest issue of the UNWTO Tourism Barometer also shows
that US$ 1 billion were lost in export revenues from international tourism in
2021, adding to the $1 billion lost in the first year of the pandemic. Total
export revenues from tourism (including passenger transport receipts) reached
an estimated US$ 713 billion in 2021, a 4 percent increase in real terms from
2020 but still 61 percent below 2019 levels. International tourism receipts
reached US$ 602 billion, also 4 percent higher in real terms than in 2020.
Europe and the Middle East recorded the best results, with earnings climbing to
about 50 percent of pre- pandemic levels in both regions.
However, the amount being spent per trip is on the rise –
from an average US$ 1,000 in 2019 to US$ 1,400 in 2021.
As well, there is hope for stronger than expected recovery
ahead as the latest UNWTO Confidence Index showed a marked uptick. For the
first time since the start of the pandemic, the index returned to levels of
2019, reflecting rising optimism among tourism experts worldwide, building on
strong pent-up demand, in particular intra-European travel and US travel to
Europe.
According to the latest UNWTO Panel of Experts survey, an
overwhelming majority of tourism professionals (83 percent) see better prospects
for 2022 compared to 2021, as long as the virus is contained and destinations
continue to ease or lift travel restrictions. However, the ongoing closure of
some major outbound markets, mostly in Asia and the Pacific, as well as the
uncertainty derived from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could delay the effective
recovery of international tourism.
A higher number of experts (48 percent) now see a potential
return of international arrivals to 2019 levels in 2023 (from 32 percent in the
January survey), while the percentage indicating this could happen in 2024 or
later (44 percent) has diminished compared to the January survey (64 percent).
Meanwhile by end April, international air capacity across the Americas, Africa,
Europe, North Atlantic and the Middle East has reached or is close to 80% of
pre-crisis levels and demand is following.
UNWTO has revised its outlook for 2022 due to
stronger-than-expected results in the first quarter of 2022, a significant
increase in flight reservations, and prospects from the UNWTO Confidence Index.
International tourist arrivals are now expected to reach 55 percent to 70
percent of 2019 levels in 2022, depending on several circumstances including
the rate at which destinations continue to lift travel restrictions, the evolution
of the war in Ukraine, possible new outbreaks of coronavirus and global
economic conditions, particularly inflation and energy prices.
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), is a specialized agency
of the United Nations.