Avatar: The Way of Water has collected a sizeable $435 million at the global box office in its opening weekend.

After big preview numbers headed into the weekend, Avatar: The Way of Water came in below predictions of $500-600 million — mostly due to a shocking uncontrolled surge of Covid in China that’s filling hospitals and spreading like wildfire through a population unprepared to deal with it — the $435 million worldwide holiday debut weekend is still the second-biggest of 2022 and points the way toward a potential multi-billion theatrical run.

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness scored a $442 million global bow on its way to a $955+ million final cume.

For the entire pandemic that started in early 2020, Avatar: The Way of Water is the third-best opening, behind only the Doctor Strange sequel and Spider-Man: No Way Home, which took $601 million in ticket sales around the world and a final tally of $1.9+ billion.

For another recent comparison, Top Gun: Maverick opened to $248 million worldwide and went on to a massive $1.48 billion total (the 11th-highest of all time).

Avatar 2’s lower freshman weekend results belie the fact it has an open field ahead for a long while, plus a holiday season and winter season ripe for an extended play in cinemas with strong weekly holds. Similar Christmas season openings with non-chart-topping results still positioned James Cameron’s Titanic and first Avatar film for their all-time box office results, and both films remain among the top three biggest movies in history, with Avatar owning the crown based on its $2.92 billion gross.

And for the record, Avatar’s 2009 global opening result was $241 million, which adjusted for inflation (for those who look to such things as relevant indicators) would be $334 million in today’s dollars.

All of which is to say it’s clear Avatar: The Way of Water fell short of predictions, but it’s pointless to ignore the glaring fact most of the shortfall from the $500+ million estimates is due to China’s box office failing to live up to expectations because their reopening has led to a dangerous tide of Covid infections that threaten to overload health care facilities and endanger the rest of the world with an even worsening surge through winter, including potential for even more variants due to the sheer scale of spread across the Middle Kingdom.

Besides China’s shortfall, however, there is also the fact domestic sales were overestimated into the range of $150-200 million (I’m personally particularly leery of Covid and inclined to point to it as a regular factor in box office outcomes, but even I underestimated how bad the surge would be at this point), which likewise failed to properly adjust for Covid pandemic surges in North America that are coinciding with abnormally high and early flu spread and an RSV epidemic that is overloading hospitals with mostly young patients.

Without China’s pandemic catastrophe or without the suppressed audience turnout due in part to rising trifecta of Covid-flu-RSV infections and hospitalizations, Avatar: The Way of Water would’ve easily cleared $500 million. Which isn’t to say we can ignore the lower opening outcome, but rather that it’s just silly to pretend the results aren’t largely due simply to a particularly bad and unexpected Covid situation.

Regardless of that shortfall compared to expectations, the $435 million opening in the face of a continuing — not ended, continuing — global health crisis made worse by overlapping epidemics and the scary specter of hybrid infections (already pointed to in warnings about flu and RSV) is still a monumental achievement that positions Avatar: The Way of Water even better than Titanic or the original Avatar for final box office.

Word of mouth for The Way of Water is terrific, with the same A-grade from audiences as the first film. Critical reviews at Rotten Tomatoes are 77% fresh, compared to 82% fresh for the first Avatar, but it’s not enough of a margin of difference to represent significant comedown, since more than 3/4 positive reception is more than a comfortable margin — and the verified audience scores are even better, at 93% positive.

And it’s telling that, aside from a few odd outliers that I don’t frankly understand, even most of the negative reviews still say the film’s visuals are breathtaking and beyond those of the first film, and that Pandora itself and its creatures are gorgeous and interesting to experience. Which is to say, some of the underlying motivators for most mainstream audiences who want to go to premium theaters for big blockbuster cinematic experiences full of spectacle.

And for most mainstream viewers, the family story, emotional ties between characters and the animals of Pandora, and the action-packed sequences will add up to more than enough in addition to the visuals to make Avatar: The Way of Water a must-see movie experience that many will return to see again. You can read my review of Avatar: The Way of Water here.

It’s easy enough at this point to see The Way of Water will probably top $1 billion next weekend, but surely by the end of the year. And from there, it shouldn’t be too long before it crosses $1.5 billion territory.

How high the tide of box office revenue rises from there remains to be seen, but I’m now ready to say the news out of China makes me think we have to keep a close watch on infection rates and news of new variants over the next several weeks and months before we can say how good the odds are of a $2 billion trajectory for Avatar 2.

But if the film can’t top $1 billion until the end of December, then that would be the first real sign of trouble ahead and the likelihood of a sub-$2 billion outcome.

For now, though, all signs still point to a bright future for Avatar: The Way of Water and even greater success for the third and fourth films. I’ll continue to watch the box office results and keep you up to date, so be sure to check back here again soon!

And if you’re venturing to theaters to see Avatar: The Way of Water then I recommend seeking out Dolby Cinema where it’s got the best visual and audio you’ll find. But at least see it on the biggest screen you can and in 3D — I already saw it at the Hollywood premiere at Dolby Theatre where it was presented in mind-blowing Dolby Vision 3D and Dolby Atmos, and I plan to rewatch it in IMAX 3D as well.

Wherever you see it, please be sure to wear an N95 mask and maintain social distancing as much as possible — even if you don’t fear for your own health, remember there are other people around you who are immunocompromised, elderly, young, maybe already sick with flu or RSV and thus would be at greater danger of serious illness or death if they catch any other illnesses right now.

So mask up for them, not just yourself, and keep in mind if you get sick and are okay, you could still pass that infection along to family and friends over the holidays who might have serious side effects or even death from it. Don’t risk yourself or others, just wear a simple mask.