The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has released figures that contradict the NNPC's claim regarding Nigeria's daily crude oil production. According to the NUPRC, the country produced 1.538 million bpd of crude oil and condensate in October, which is significantly lower than the NNPC's reported figure of 1.8 million bpd.
The NUPRC's report, which reflects a three-month low in production, stands in stark contrast to the figures provided by the national oil company and the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, which had stated production was at 1.808 million bpd.
Additionally, while the NNPC reported that oil and condensate production in August was 1.7 million bpd, the NUPRC indicated that the actual production for that month was only 1.57 million bpd, revealing a discrepancy of 130,000 bpd.
Furthermore, the NNPC's claimed production of 1.808 million bpd is approximately 270,000 bpd higher than the volume reported by the NUPRC. On November 14, the NNPC and the Ministry of Petroleum announced that Nigeria had reached the 1.808 million bpd milestone and aimed to achieve a production level of two million bpd by December.
The national oil company announced that, in collaboration with its partners, it has increased crude oil and gas production to 1.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) and 7.4 billion standard cubic feet per day (bscfd).
Mele Kyari, the Chief Executive of NNPC, stated, “The team has excelled in advancing this initiative, not only in recovering production but also in elevating it to levels that meet the expectations of our shareholders, as mandated by the President, the Honourable Minister, and the Board.”
Additionally, Mr. Lawal Musa, the Chief War Room Coordinator and Senior Business Adviser to Kyari, revealed that when the team was established on June 25, 2024, production stood at 1.430 million bpd.
He noted that the team quickly mobilized, resulting in a sustained production recovery to 1.7 million bpd in August and reaching the current level of 1.808 million bpd in November.
Musa expressed confidence that, with continued momentum and strong collaboration among all stakeholders, particularly regarding security, the target of 2 million bpd could be achieved by year-end.
However, data released by the NUPRC indicated that Nigeria's oil production for the previous month was the lowest recorded in the last three months.
In January, oil and condensate production was 1.64 million bpd; it decreased to 1.539 million bpd in February, 1.43 million bpd in March, 1.44 million bpd in April, and 1.46 million bpd in May.
Production figures for subsequent months were 1.50 million bpd in June, 1.533 million bpd in July, 1.57 million bpd in August, 1.54 million bpd in September, and 1.538 million bpd in October.
The NUPRC, as the upstream regulator, is responsible for maintaining records on upstream petroleum operations, particularly concerning petroleum reserves, production and exports, licenses, and leases.
Typically, the commission publishes Nigeria’s production data every second week of the month, with production calculations conducted on a monthly basis rather than weekly.
NUPRC data indicated a decline in oil and condensate production at Forcados, dropping from 7.29 million barrels in September to 5 million barrels in October. In contrast, production at the Bonny terminal experienced a slight increase, rising from 6.1 million barrels to 6.2 million barrels.
During the reporting period, Nigeria's crude oil production averaged 1.33 million barrels per day (bpd), falling short of its OPEC quota of 1.58 million bpd as stipulated by the international oil organization.
In the preceding year, OPEC revised Nigeria's oil production quota downward from an initial allocation of 1.8 million bpd to 1.58 million bpd, primarily due to the nation's persistent challenges in meeting its production targets.
Nigeria's ongoing shortfall in oil production is attributed to a combination of factors, including substantial oil theft, pipeline vandalism, aging infrastructure, and a decline in investment.