This rollout precedes its domestic release by one week, aligning with the November schedule for the $200 million holiday film starring Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans.
The Seven Bucks production aims for an international opening in the range of $25 million to $30 million. For comparison, Johnson's previous family film, Jungle Cruise, earned $26 million in similar markets upon its release in 2021.
The strongest performances are anticipated in English-speaking regions, Latin America, and Western Europe. Although the film will debut in China on Friday and is currently second in presales, expectations for its performance there are low. Overall, this Christmas-themed movie may encounter challenges in the Asian market, with Korea's opening today landing at No. 4 with $63,000, including previews.
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| L-R: Chris Evans, Lucy Liu, Dwayne Johnson aka The Rock, Kiernan Shipka, J. K. Simmons, Bonnie Hunt and Jake Kasdan attend the London photocall for “Red One” at Potters Field on November 6, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Alan Chapman/Dave Benett/WireImage) |
Initially intended for streaming, Red One was shifted to a theatrical release after positive test screenings. Warner Bros is handling the overseas distribution through its agreement with Amazon MGM, which chose not to pursue a theatrical release in France due to the complex windowing system that would delay streaming for 17 months, a similar situation exists in Turkey with a five-month window.
Domestically, initial tracking data from late October indicated a potential opening weekend gross of $36 million in the United States and Canada for the November 15 release, with the possibility of higher earnings. The film is anticipated to appeal primarily to a younger male demographic, followed by older males and females.
Positive word-of-mouth could potentially drive box office success despite early reviews indicating a 40% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Red One may face competition from other female-targeted films such as Moana 2 and Wicked, but it has the potential to navigate this competitive landscape successfully.