- The transition to a sustainable climate necessitates global investments of no less than $4 trillion each year by 2030.
- In a period marked by sluggish economic growth, such investments can enhance productivity, generate employment opportunities, and promote inclusive development.
- Artificial intelligence is particularly well-suited to expedite this change by amplifying innovation and instigating significant systemic transformations.
- By fostering collaboration among governments, technology providers, and the energy industry, AI can effectively tackle climate-related issues while contributing to a more equitable and sustainable future worldwide.
The global economy faces escalating environmental challenges, encompassing climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution, necessitating immediate systemic reform and significantly increased investment in climate and nature-related initiatives.
This transition requires significant investments – at least $4 trillion annually by 2030 globally, including $2.4 trillion in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), where investment flows are lowest and potential for leapfrogging traditional technologies is greatest. For example, Africa holds 60% of the world’s best solar resources but received less than 2% of clean energy investments in 2023.
Growth is currently facing challenges, with job creation and productivity being significant concerns globally. An immediate and substantial investment in sustainability is essential, as it will not only facilitate recovery but also promote robust, efficient, and environmentally friendly growth, creating numerous new opportunities. It is important to recognize that the transition to net-zero should not be seen merely as an expense; rather, it has the potential to drive innovation, eliminate inefficiencies, enhance public health, and foster inclusive economic growth.
Artificial Intelligence (AI), as a transformative and versatile technology, is particularly well-suited to expedite this transition by enhancing innovation and instigating significant systemic changes. While there are promising theoretical frameworks, comprehensive studies that quantify AI's potential impact on macroeconomic growth and emissions reduction are still scarce. Given the pressing nature of the situation and the opportunities available, further investigation is essential.
The five primary areas where AI can make an impact
AI serves as a crucial facilitator in five vital areas that are essential for addressing climate change:
1. Redesigning complex systems
AI has the capability to rethink interconnected systems such as energy, transportation, urban environments, and land management. In energy systems, it enhances grid reliability and efficiency by predicting supply and demand, coordinating resources across different regions and times, and effectively integrating renewable energy sources and storage solutions. For instance, DeepMind's optimization of wind energy has increased the economic value of renewables by 20%. These advantages are particularly significant in emerging markets, which often face substantial infrastructure challenges but possess the potential to advance towards cleaner systems.
2. Accelerating discovery and innovation
Achieving net-zero targets necessitates not only the expansion of existing solutions but also the development of new technologies. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that nearly 50% of the emissions reductions needed by 2050 will stem from technologies that are still in the developmental phase. Artificial intelligence plays a crucial role in expediting discovery, as evidenced by DeepMind’s AlphaFold, which has decoded over 200 million protein structures, paving the way for advancements in fields such as alternative proteins and energy storage. The rapid pace of digital innovation is transforming the landscape of science and technology.
3. Driving behavioural changeArtificial intelligence enables consumers to make environmentally conscious decisions through personalized interventions. For instance, Google Maps offers eco-friendly routing options that utilize AI to recommend paths with fewer inclines, reduced traffic, and consistent speeds, all while maintaining similar estimated arrival times. This initiative has contributed to the prevention of over 1 million tonnes of CO2 emissions annually during its initial rollout in select cities across Europe and the United States, which is comparable to removing 200,000 vehicles from the roads.
4. Improving climate and policy modelling
AI significantly improves the accuracy of climate impact forecasts and policy assessments. Platforms like IceNet and Google’s FloodHub analyze extensive datasets in real time, delivering timely alerts for flooding and changes in sea ice. Additionally, AI forecasts the effects of policies such as carbon pricing on public behavior, assisting policymakers in designing more effective strategies.
5. Enhancing adaptation and resilience
Artificial intelligence bolsters resilience against climate-related challenges by refining long-term adaptation strategies. For example, AI-driven drought forecasting, in conjunction with assessments of canopy water content, helps pinpoint regions at risk. These insights empower governments and communities to allocate resources and manage risk mitigation more effectively, thereby promoting stability and security.
Assessing the Climate Impact of AI
To comprehend how various factors can facilitate technology adoption, leading to reduced emissions and enhanced economic productivity, we concentrate on three key sectors: power, food, and mobility. Together, these sectors account for approximately half of global emissions and a significant portion of global economic output.
By utilizing sector-specific historical technology adoption curves (S-curves), we analyze how AI can expedite these curves for essential low-carbon technologies—namely solar and wind energy, alternative proteins, and electric vehicles—by enhancing efficiency, promoting the use of low-carbon technologies, and shaping consumer behaviors.
Our findings indicate that AI has the potential to boost the adoption of these technologies, resulting in a reduction of annual emissions by an estimated 3-6 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2e) by the year 2035.
- In the power sector, AI improves the efficiency of renewable energy sources, leading to an annual emissions reduction of approximately 1.8 GtCO2e.
- In the food sector, AI's role in promoting alternative proteins could lead to a decrease of up to 50% in meat and dairy consumption, saving around 3 GtCO2e each year.
- In the mobility sector, AI-driven shared transportation and optimized electric vehicle adoption could contribute to an annual emissions reduction of about 0.6 GtCO2e.
It is important to note that AI also contributes to emissions through increased energy consumption in data centers. Based on the best available estimates, we anticipate that AI could add between 0.4 and 1.6 GtCO2e annually by 2035. Therefore, AI's overall impact on emissions is likely to be significantly positive, provided it is strategically utilized to promote low-carbon technologies. These estimates may be conservative, as they only reflect a portion of the dynamic and systemic effects and cover limited aspects of the economy and emissions.
A collaboration among technology, energy sectors, government entities, and civil society organizations
Relying solely on market dynamics is insufficient to steer AI applications towards addressing climate change. It is essential for governments, technology firms, and energy companies to actively engage in the responsible, equitable, and sustainable use of AI. Collectively, they should:
- Create favorable conditions for AI implementation, which includes developing necessary infrastructure and skills, especially in developing nations.
- Encourage investments in AI solutions that yield significant social and environmental benefits.
- Establish regulations to mitigate risks, such as heightened energy consumption, while advocating for renewable energy-powered data centers and energy-efficient algorithms.
With the backing of civil society, governments must also serve as guardians of equity, ensuring that the Global South reaps the benefits of AI's transformative capabilities rather than being marginalized. Without intentional measures, AI could worsen global disparities. The emerging opportunities and challenges presented by AI will reshape public policies and redefine the interactions and roles of governmental institutions.
A forward-looking perspective
AI offers a distinctive chance to tackle the climate crisis and expedite the transition, thereby fostering innovation, economic growth, and resilience. Its capacity to enhance, optimize, and transform systems, along with accelerating discovery and innovation, can align the global economy with net-zero objectives. However, capitalizing on this opportunity necessitates immediate, coordinated efforts from governments, businesses, and civil society, working in unison with market forces.
When guided with intention, AI can alleviate climate-related risks and contribute to a more equitable and prosperous future. The pressing question is not whether AI can aid in the net-zero transition, but whether we will take decisive action to leverage its transformative potential with the necessary urgency and purpose.
This article is part of: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting