This positive outlook is based on anticipated growth in foreign exchange earnings, primarily fueled by increased crude oil exports, revitalized manufacturing in the oil refining sector, and enhanced agricultural productivity. Given that crude oil is Nigeria's primary export, stable global demand coupled with improved local production is expected to substantially boost export revenues.
In its economic outlook for 2025, released on Thursday, NESG estimated that real GDP growth could reach 5.5% in 2025, provided that comprehensive stabilization reforms are implemented.
These reforms are designed to tackle both cross-sectoral and specific sector challenges, facilitating broad-based growth across various sectors. NESG highlighted that this would represent a shift from the limited sectoral growth observed in 2024, where only four out of 20 key sectors achieved growth rates above 5%. The Group emphasized that such reforms would not only promote growth but also address the structural issues that have impeded economic progress.
Additionally, NESG projected a notable reduction in inflation to 24.7% in 2025, indicating improved macroeconomic stability. This forecast relies on effective coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, greater stability in the foreign exchange market due to increased supply, and diminished speculative demand.
The anticipated rise in agricultural output, driven by enhanced security in farming areas and better access to farmland, is expected to be crucial in mitigating food scarcity and alleviating price pressures. NESG stated, “Increased food production will alleviate scarcity and help stabilise food prices, which remain a key driver of inflation in Nigeria,”
Olaniyi Yusuf, Chairman of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), remarked on the significant decline of the official naira-to-dollar exchange rate, which fell by 41.4% to settle at N1,536.5 per US dollar in 2024. He emphasized the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) dedication to implementing policies that promote price discovery and reduce the disparity between official and parallel market exchange rates.
Yusuf articulated that the ideal strategies for stabilization involve a comprehensive integration of monetary, fiscal, sectoral, social safety, trade, and regulatory frameworks, setting the stage for the consolidation phase of the economic transformation roadmap over the next year.
In a virtual address, Olayemi Cardoso, Governor of the CBN, expressed optimism regarding the naira's competitiveness, attributing the stability to recent foreign exchange reforms.
“I am very, very confident that we are going to see a very positive outcome. In fact, we are already seeing the impact, especially in terms of foreign remittances. The inflows through international money transfer operators (IMTOs) have been remarkable,” Cardoso said.
He recognized the significant economic hurdles faced in 2024, such as diminishing foreign exchange reserves, falling oil prices, and a decrease in oil production, while underscoring the necessity for innovative approaches. “Instead of dwelling on our challenges, we needed to seek out new avenues and opportunities, and the outcomes have been promising. The reforms are producing beneficial results,” he stated.
Cardoso pointed out essential reforms implemented by the CBN in 2024, which included settling $7 billion in verified foreign exchange obligations, halting quasi-fiscal measures, and consolidating various exchange rate windows. He asserted that these actions were crucial in stabilizing the naira and bolstering Nigeria’s standing in the global economic arena.
“Our focus has been on market-oriented policies to address Nigeria’s unique challenges while boosting investor confidence,” he elaborated.
Additional noteworthy initiatives encompassed reforms in the foreign exchange market and remittance systems, the introduction of foreign exchange codes, and the establishment of an electronic forex matching system. These initiatives aimed to improve market efficiency, narrow the gap between Bureau De Change and official exchange rates, and promote stability.
The bank also approved 14 new international money transfer operators and initiated a non-resident BVN program to facilitate seamless banking access for Nigerians living abroad.
“This is a clear example of how we are responding to the needs of Nigerians overseas while addressing opportunities for economic growth,” Cardoso remarked.
Reflecting on the economic achievements of 2024, Cardoso disclosed that Nigeria attracted over $6 billion in foreign capital inflows, with external reserves surpassing $40 billion.
“These achievements signify growing investor confidence in our economy. Our efforts have not only increased the quantity of reserves but also improved their quality,” he noted.
Cardoso highlighted the competitive benefits resulting from the revised foreign exchange rate. “Yes, the depreciation has its challenges, especially for an import-dependent economy like ours. However, it also presents significant opportunities. Our currency is now more competitive, which is attracting foreign investors and boosting export potentials. The implications for productive activity are substantial,” he remarked.
As Nigeria moves toward 2025, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) plans to further advance these reforms, with an emphasis on improving financial inclusion, engaging the diaspora, and strengthening compliance protocols. Cardoso stressed the necessity of transparency and market efficiency, asserting, “We will remain vigilant, ensuring all market participants adhere to best practices. Those who fail to comply will face appropriate consequences.”