Nigeria’s dream of achieving energy independence through local refining remains elusive, as new data show the country still relies heavily on imported petrol—despite the commissioning of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery.
Figures from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) reveal that between October 2024 and July 2025, Nigeria consumed about 12.5 billion litres of petrol, out of which 9.08 billion litres—or 72.64 per cent—were imported. The remaining 3.5 billion litres came from domestic production, largely supplied by Dangote Refinery.
The data underscores the persistent gap between Nigeria’s refining ambitions and reality. Even with Africa’s largest refinery in operation, import dependence remains high. In October 2024, for instance, the country imported 40.43 million litres of petrol daily, while Dangote supplied just 7.09 million litres—barely 15 per cent of total demand. Although local output improved early in 2025, peaking in January with 592 million litres and cutting import dependence to 56 per cent, subsequent months saw production falter amid operational disruptions and crude supply challenges.
By mid-2025, the situation worsened. In May, domestic supply dropped to 472 million litres, forcing importers to meet nearly three-quarters of national demand. By July, Dangote’s contribution had fallen to just 31.5 per cent following a temporary shutdown caused by labour unrest.
Despite being Africa’s top crude producer, Nigeria still struggles to provide feedstock for its refineries. In 2024, Dangote Refinery imported roughly 20 per cent of its crude from the United States—an irony that reflects the structural inefficiencies of Nigeria’s oil sector. Analysts warn that without secure crude supply, even the continent’s most advanced refineries cannot guarantee fuel independence.
NJ Ayuk, Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, attributed much of the problem to weak investment and restrictive regulations. “You can send crude and LPG across borders, but an African holding an African passport can’t move freely,” he remarked, lamenting the $15.7 billion annual shortfall in Africa’s energy infrastructure investment.
While Nigeria grapples with underperformance, other African nations are ramping up refinery projects that could shift the balance of power in regional fuel markets. From Ethiopia to Senegal, Angola to Uganda, a wave of new plants and rehabilitations is reshaping Africa’s refining landscape—potentially challenging Nigeria’s aspiration to become the continent’s energy hub.
Ethiopia, for example, is developing the 70,000 barrels-per-day Gode Refinery in partnership with China’s GCL, designed to process domestic crude from the Ogaden Basin. Senegal has unveiled plans for a second national refinery, estimated to cost between $2 billion and $5 billion, targeting completion by 2029. Angola is advancing the Cabinda Refinery, slated to begin operations in 2025, alongside the ambitious 425,000 barrels-per-day Sonaref project expected by 2027.
Uganda’s long-delayed Hoima Refinery is nearing financial close, while Ghana’s Tema Refinery resumed operations in 2024 after years of inactivity. Elsewhere, Egypt’s Midor Refinery expansion has boosted capacity to 160,000 barrels per day. These, combined with refinery revivals in Cameroon, Libya, and Côte d’Ivoire, represent the most aggressive push for African self-sufficiency in decades.
Still, the African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA) warns that such projects barely scratch the surface. The continent, according to ARDA’s Executive Secretary Anibor Kragha, would need at least six Dangote-sized refineries to meet current demand. He cited regulatory ambiguity, financing bottlenecks, and the global energy transition as key obstacles deterring investors.
The stakes are high. OPEC forecasts that Africa’s oil consumption will grow from 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024 to 4.5 million barrels by 2050, reducing crude exports by over one million barrels daily. The organisation estimates a $100 billion investment gap in refining capacity by mid-century, warning that without aggressive funding and policy reform, the continent will remain vulnerable to fuel import shocks for decades.
For Nigeria, the message is clear: refining capacity alone is not enough. Until domestic crude supply, pipeline integrity, and regulatory coherence improve, Africa’s most ambitious refinery may continue to underperform—while its neighbours quietly close the gap.