The results, covering the July–September period, will give investors the first glimpse of how the iPhone 17 launch is reshaping Apple’s momentum heading into the crucial holiday season. Though the quarter included just a few days of iPhone 17 sales after its September 19 debut, analysts say the early numbers point to an encouraging upgrade cycle.
The iPhone 17 series—featuring a sharper display, larger storage options, and a faster processor—has sparked stronger-than-expected demand in key markets such as the U.S. and China. Research firm Counterpoint estimates that sales during the first 10 days were up 14% compared to last year’s iPhone 16 lineup, with most buyers opting for the premium Pro models that carry higher profit margins.
That demand has lifted Apple’s smartphone shipments in China, according to IDC, where the company has been under pressure from rivals like Huawei and Xiaomi. The renewed momentum has also bolstered investor sentiment: Apple’s shares rose 24% in the July–September quarter, their best performance in more than two years. The company even crossed the $4 trillion market capitalization mark this week, becoming only the third firm ever to do so.
Still, Apple’s stock trails other members of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech giants this year, as investors remain wary of its slow progress in artificial intelligence. Competitors like Samsung Electronics have integrated AI tools more aggressively into their devices, adding to concerns that Apple’s innovation engine may be losing its edge.
“Apple is riding high into earnings with better-than-expected iPhone 17 sales in both the U.S. and China, buoying it back to top-smartphone-provider status,” said Jacob Bourne, an analyst at eMarketer. “Yet the battle is far from won as questions about its AI standing linger.”
Wall Street expects iPhone sales to have risen 8.6% to $50 billion in Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter, setting a new record for the period. Total revenue is forecast to climb 7.6% to $102.17 billion, while profit is projected at $1.77 per share, according to data compiled by LSEG.
The company’s strategy to diversify iPhone production beyond China—by expanding assembly in India—also remains in focus. Apple previously disclosed that it anticipates roughly $1.1 billion in tariff-related costs this quarter due to U.S.-China trade tensions.
Not every model in the new lineup has performed equally well. The slimmer iPhone 17 Air has seen muted demand, partly because of its $1,000 price tag and single-lens camera. In China, its rollout was delayed until mid-October as carriers waited for approval to support the eSIM-only model.
Beyond hardware, investors are expected to seek clarity on Apple’s artificial intelligence roadmap. Reports of high-profile AI researcher departures and the postponement of an AI-enhanced Siri until 2026 have amplified scrutiny of the company’s strategy.
“They’re clearly challenged,” said Bob O’Donnell, president of TECHnalysis Research. “Apple hasn’t come up with any compelling AI offerings and doesn’t seem to have a strategy strong enough to retain top-tier AI talent.”
Despite these concerns, analysts broadly agree that Apple’s near-term strength lies in its ability to keep the iPhone at the center of its ecosystem. With the holiday quarter approaching—a period that historically delivers Apple’s biggest profits—the iPhone 17’s performance could determine whether the company’s next act remains driven by hardware, or if it can finally deliver on its long-awaited AI promise.