Nigeria is preparing to push for a higher oil production quota at the next Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting in November, as the country’s crude output and upstream investments show renewed momentum.
The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, disclosed that the country would formally request an upward review of its current quota—set at about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd)—to at least two million bpd.
In a special bulletin issued by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Lokpobiri said the existing quota no longer reflects Nigeria’s true capacity, especially after recent gains in output, infrastructure rehabilitation, and investment inflows.
“The OPEC quota is subject to periodic review, and by November, when we attend the annual meeting, we will certainly be making a case for a higher quota for Nigeria,” Lokpobiri stated. “There’s no better time than now for us to make that case.”
Rising Output and Renewed Confidence
Nigeria’s production has climbed steadily to around 1.7 million barrels per day, including condensates—though still short of the 2.2 million bpd benchmark used in the 2025 federal budget. Lokpobiri expressed optimism that the country’s growing output levels, improved security in oil-producing regions, and stronger regulatory oversight would bolster its argument at OPEC.
“When I became Minister, our OPEC quota was 1.5 million barrels per day because we were producing below that,” he explained. “Today, we are producing around 1.7 million barrels daily, and we have the capacity to produce above two million barrels per day. It is time to review the quota upward.”
The minister also clarified that condensate production—though not counted under OPEC limits—gives Nigeria added flexibility. “Condensate sells at a higher price, and if we do 1.5 million barrels of crude and one million of condensate, we are still within OPEC rules,” he said.
Lokpobiri revealed that a technical assessment of the country’s true production capacity is underway, adding that verifiable data and compliance with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) will strengthen Nigeria’s case.
He credited the production rebound to improved security and reduced oil theft in the Niger Delta, noting that “before now, companies were scared to produce because crude pumped into pipelines hardly got to the terminal. Today, what you put in is what you get out.”
Nigeria’s rig count—an indicator of upstream activity—has reportedly jumped from 14 to nearly 50, a sign of investor confidence returning to the industry.
Divestments and the PIA’s Impact
Lokpobiri also highlighted that recent divestments by major oil firms such as Shell, TotalEnergies, and ExxonMobil have opened new opportunities for indigenous players. He credited the PIA and the leadership of NUPRC Chief Executive, Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, for creating a transparent regulatory framework that encourages participation.
“The NUPRC is just four years old, but it looks like a 50-year-old institution,” the minister said during the Commission’s anniversary event. “Today, confidence is back, and investments are coming.”
Komolafe, in response, attributed the Commission’s progress to President Bola Tinubu’s support and the minister’s leadership, saying the NUPRC has functioned as both a “business enabler and opportunity marketer” for the upstream sector.
Can Nigeria Sustain Two Million Barrels per Day?
While the federal government has consistently met OPEC’s current quota, energy analysts remain cautious about the feasibility of raising production to two million barrels daily.
Industry observers note that while Nigeria’s infrastructure and security situation have improved, maintaining higher output sustainably remains a challenge due to market volatility and ongoing technical constraints.
An industry expert suggested that the push for a higher quota might partly be aimed at meeting domestic supply demands, particularly for the Dangote Refinery, while still allowing room for exports.
Dr. Garuba Dauda, an oil and gas analyst, however, believes the bid is justified: “It is worth pursuing. There has been relative stability in the Niger Delta and fewer incidents of oil theft. Increasing our quota could help reflate the economy, especially after years of austerity and reforms.”
Ending Gas Flaring by 2030
Meanwhile, the NUPRC has reaffirmed Nigeria’s commitment to ending gas flaring by 2030 through its flare gas commercialisation programme. Speaking at the International Conference on Hydrocarbon Science and Technology organised by the Petroleum Training Institute (PTI), Komolafe said the initiative is converting once-wasted gas into useful energy sources.
He stressed that Nigeria’s hydrocarbon strategy must go beyond production figures to focus on governance, sustainability, and equitable resource management. “Across flare sites, gas that once burned wastefully into the sky is now being positioned to power homes and industries,” he said.
Komolafe also lamented Africa’s paradox of abundance—rich in energy resources yet energy-poor—blaming weak institutions and opaque governance for the disconnect. He noted that under President Tinubu’s leadership, Nigeria is charting a “new course anchored on transparency and accountability.”
The Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Petroleum, Dr. Emeka Vitalis Obi, added that the PIA has restructured Nigeria’s petroleum governance framework to make the industry more efficient, transparent, and investor-friendly.
With OPEC’s next meeting fast approaching, Nigeria’s ability to present credible data and sustain its production recovery may determine whether the country finally secures a higher quota—one that matches its ambitions and its growing upstream momentum.