By 1107 GMT, Brent crude futures rose 89 cents, or 1.4%, to $65.42 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 84 cents, also about 1.4%, to trade at $61.72.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, said on Sunday that they would raise production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, mirroring October’s increase. The figure was smaller than some in the market had anticipated, following reports that Saudi Arabia had pushed for a steeper hike to recover market share, while Russia favored a more cautious approach to avoid depressing prices.
“The market was expecting a somewhat larger increase from OPEC+ as shown in the structure last week,” said Janiv Shah, analyst at Rystad Energy. “However, the modest 137,000 bpd still bloats the already-oversupplied balance for the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026.”
The restrained production boost comes against a backdrop of rising Venezuelan exports, the resumption of Kurdish oil flows via Turkey, and reports of unsold Middle Eastern barrels available for November loading, according to Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates.
Adding to the market dynamics, Saudi Arabia kept its official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude to Asia unchanged. Refining sources surveyed by Reuters had expected a minor increase, but those expectations faded after premiums for Middle Eastern crude slipped to a 22-month low last week.
Despite U.S. diplomatic pressure on India to curb its purchases of Russian oil, an Indian government official told Reuters that supply from Russia remains sufficient for refiners. The official noted that recent attacks on Russian energy facilities have ironically boosted availability, indirectly helping to stabilize global markets.
Analysts say refinery maintenance season in the Middle East could provide temporary support to prices, but structural weakness in demand remains a concern. U.S. data last week showed larger-than-expected increases in crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories, reflecting softer refining activity and consumption.
“If we see a steadier rise in production then the downside in oil prices may be contained,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group. “Much now depends on whether the U.S. economy can reaccelerate over the rest of 2025 and into 2026, which would help demand immensely.”
While Monday’s gains offer some relief to producers, market watchers say oil prices are likely to stay range-bound amid competing forces of restrained supply and fragile demand.