According to the latest NBS report, headline inflation decelerated to 16.05 percent in October 2025, a notable drop from 18.02 percent in September. This marks the seventh consecutive month of disinflation and represents one of the most robust single-month declines recorded this year. Similarly, food inflation—often the most volatile component of the basket—moderated to 13.12 percent, down from 16.9 percent the previous month.
However, despite the optimistic data, market watchers and economic analysts insist that the numbers obscure the harsh economic reality on the ground.
Disinflation Without Welfare Gains
Dr. Muda Yusuf, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), argues that the "welfare effect" of this disinflation is negligible. He points out that a slowdown in the rate of inflation does not equate to a reduction in prices, particularly in sectors that consume the bulk of household income.
Yusuf highlighted that price pressures remain stubbornly high in critical areas including food, transportation, housing, utilities, education, and health.
“Inflationary pressures remain elevated in critical household sectors—including food, transportation, housing, utilities, education, and health—which jointly account for 84 percent of inflation,” Yusuf stated.
He attributed this disconnect to persistent structural bottlenecks that monetary policy alone cannot fix. These include:
- High logistics and distribution costs.
- Severe energy constraints.
- Insecurity in Nigeria’s food-producing belts.
- Climate-related disruptions suppressing agricultural supply.
Yusuf emphasized that until deeper reforms are implemented to address these supply-side challenges, statistical improvements will remain "paper gains" rather than tangible relief for citizens.
Questions Over Data Credibility
Taking a harder stance, Mazi Okechukwu Unegbu, former President of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN), questioned the integrity of the official data. Speaking in an interview, Unegbu suggested the NBS figures are "detached" from the marketplace reality.
"The inflation figure by the National Bureau of Statistics is flawed because it does not reflect reality," Unegbu asserted. "In real terms, the country’s inflation is as high as 29 percent."
He argued that as long as the costs of fuel, rent, and essential food items continue their upward trajectory, a report claiming a decline in inflation "does not make sense" to the average consumer trying to survive on a stagnant income.
Why the Relief is Missing
Prof. Godwin Oyedokun, a university don and economist, provided a detailed analysis of why the macroeconomic data is not resonating with the populace. He clarified that a lower inflation rate merely means prices are rising at a slower pace, not that they are falling—a distinction often lost in public discourse.
Oyedokun outlined six key reasons why the "pinch" remains severe:
- Cumulative Price Levels: Prices remain at historically high levels despite the slower rate of increase.
- Stagnant Incomes: Wages and SME earnings have not kept pace with the cumulative inflation of the last two years, severely eroding purchasing power.
- Unresolved Cost Drivers: Volatile exchange rates, energy costs, and high interest rates continue to fuel the cost of production.
- Inflation Expectations: Businesses, anticipating future volatility, are pricing goods higher in advance, keeping costs up.
- Regional Disparities: National averages hide the fact that residents in certain states face much higher costs for food and transport.
- Prevalence of Poverty: High unemployment rates mean that even a significant slowdown in inflation does little to lift the welfare of those already below the poverty line.
"Nigerians have yet to feel any relief because the level of prices—not just the rate of change—remains painfully high, and the structural conditions driving hardship persist," Oyedokun concluded.