Nigeria risks turning its large population into an economic burden unless it urgently reduces its dependence on imports and deliberately expands domestic industrial capacity, the Minister of State for Industry, Senator John Owan, has warned.

Speaking at the Redeemed Christian Church of God Lagos Province 35 Economic Summit on Saturday, Owan said demographic size alone does not translate into economic growth without a strong manufacturing base capable of absorbing labour and creating value. He stressed that the Federal Government’s Nigeria-First policy would only succeed if it is backed by predictable policies, coordinated implementation and effective use of public procurement to stimulate local production.

President Bola Tinubu announced the Nigeria-First policy in 2025 to prioritise Nigerian-made goods and services in all government procurement. According to Owan, translating the policy from announcement to action remains the key challenge.

He revealed that his ministry has begun engagements with the Bureau of Public Procurement to align procurement frameworks with industrial development goals across priority sectors such as textiles and apparel, automotive manufacturing, medical equipment and furniture. He said government purchasing power remains one of the most underutilised tools for driving industrial growth.

Owan noted that predictable government demand could unlock private investment, deepen local value chains and accelerate industrialisation, citing examples from countries such as Bangladesh and Vietnam, which built globally competitive industries by focusing on policy consistency rather than perfect infrastructure.

He argued that Nigeria could achieve self-sufficiency in areas like clothing and automobile assembly if procurement policies deliberately favoured local production. Using the automotive sector as an example, he said mandating manufacturers to establish local plants as a condition for government patronage would make economic sense given the size of Nigeria’s market.

The minister said repeated interactions with manufacturers across the country revealed a common concern: uncertainty. According to him, businesses are less worried about imperfect conditions than about inconsistent policies.

“One manufacturer told me, ‘I don’t need everything to be perfect; I just need things to be predictable,’” Owan said, adding that stable rules are essential for investment, expansion and job creation.

He explained that entrepreneurs innovate only when regulations are stable, investors commit capital only when policy direction is clear, and manufacturers expand only when planning horizons are reliable.

Owan said the current administration’s economic reforms are aimed at shifting Nigeria from consumption-driven, discretionary policies to a rule-based, production-oriented economy built on stability, fairness and confidence.

He further warned that Nigeria’s youthful population could become a liability if industrial capacity does not expand fast enough to generate sustainable employment.

“A large population only makes sense if it is productive. Otherwise, it becomes pressure, not potential,” he said.

According to the minister, aligning industrial policy with procurement reform would reduce import dependence, strengthen domestic manufacturing and ensure that government spending supports local industries rather than foreign producers.

Owan concluded by saying that reforms expected to take root in 2026 must translate into stronger industries, increased trade, deeper investment and, most importantly, significant job creation.