While debates continue over AI’s potential impact on white-collar employment, a recent study by Germany’s Ifo Institute found that more than a quarter of German firms anticipate workforce reductions due to AI over the next five years.
In contrast, the ECB’s Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises indicates that firms making significant use of AI are more likely to expand their staff in the near term. “In other words, AI-intensive firms tend, on average, to hire rather than fire,” the blog post said, cautioning that the views expressed are not necessarily those of the ECB itself.
The post also noted that companies planning to invest in AI generally have more optimistic expectations for future employment growth. “This is true regardless of the level of planned AI investment and suggests that a pause in hiring due to investment in AI technology is also unlikely over the next year,” the economists wrote.
However, they acknowledged that the long-term impact of AI on jobs could be different. Many surveys predicting job losses examine longer time horizons, and significant transformations in production processes could alter employment trends once AI becomes more deeply integrated.
The findings suggest that, at least for now, AI may be complementing human labor rather than replacing it, offering a counterpoint to widespread fears of immediate large-scale job displacement in Europe.