Shipping activity through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz has virtually ground to a halt as the deadline for the expiry of the 60-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran approaches, with no formal negotiations or agreement in sight.
Data from Kpler cited by Reuters showed that only five cargo vessels transited the critical waterway on Saturday, while no vessels were recorded passing through on Sunday. That represents a sharp decline from the previous weekend, when 31 ships crossed the passage.
The slowdown comes after shipping traffic through the strait already fell to a three-month low last week. A five-day average of just 13 vessel transits on Tuesday represented the lowest level recorded since May 12, according to a CNBC analysis of Kpler data.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy corridors, carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies. Under normal conditions, the waterway handles about 130 vessel transits each day.
Since the war began on February 28, shipping activity has fallen by about 90 per cent, highlighting the growing disruption facing global trade and energy markets as uncertainty over the security of the waterway persists.
HSBC shipping expert Parash Jain, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe on Monday, warned investors to prepare for continued volatility in the shipping industry.
“Chaos is the norm,” Jain said, urging investors to incorporate persistent disruption into their baseline expectations for the sector.
Despite the sharp decline in vessel movements, oil prices edged lower on Monday. International benchmark Brent crude futures were down 0.15 per cent at $88.45 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.74 per cent to $81.79.
Ceasefire deadline looms
The latest disruption comes as the fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran approaches its Monday expiry, with diplomatic efforts apparently stalled and no formal agreement announced.
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said over the weekend that there was no formal ceasefire currently in place between the two countries, while also denying that direct negotiations were taking place.
Iranian news outlet Shahrara News quoted him as saying: “No negotiations have been held between the United States and us at this time...Qatar and Pakistan are exchanging messages between the parties and are in contact with us, but this does not mean negotiations.”
His comments underscore the uncertainty surrounding efforts to prevent a renewed escalation between the two sides.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said last week that he would “pretty soon” declare the Strait of Hormuz “a territory of the United States,” a statement likely to further heighten tensions over control of the strategic waterway.
Iran, however, has rejected any suggestion that control of the strait could shift away from Tehran.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said in a post on X on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz would remain “Iranian” and would only be closed or reopened “under Iran’s command.”
The increasingly tense standoff has placed the global shipping and energy industries on heightened alert. Any prolonged disruption to the waterway could have significant implications for oil supplies, freight costs and international trade, given the strait’s central role in transporting energy from the Middle East to global markets.
With the ceasefire deadline now approaching and diplomatic channels yet to produce a clear agreement, shipping companies and energy traders are facing renewed uncertainty over whether traffic through the vital passage will recover or face further disruption.