OGUN ELECTIONS GBOYEGA ISIAKA, OLURIN, AMOSU IN FIGHT TO FINISH …WHY PPN MAY WIN GUBER ELECTION

Ibikunle Amosun

The trio have their roots in the same political party, the People's Democratic party (PDP), but things have changed now and they are at the political battlefield of who will win the 2011 governorship election and control the government machinery of Ogun State.

Senator Ibikunle Amosun, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) guber candidate in the next month's election was a member of PDP. He contested and won the seat to represent Ogun Central Senatorial District at the 2003 general elections. Today, he has dumped the PDP and he's the candidate of the ACN, the formidable  opposition party which now controls majority of the states in the Southwest of Nigeria.

General Tunji Olurin (rtd) is the recognized candidate of the PDP in Ogun State. Though, his candidature is still being challenged at the Appeal Court.

A former military governor of old Oyo state, ex commander of the defunct West Africa Peace Keeping mission known then as ECOMOG and former administrator of Ekiti State during an emergency rule few years ago, Gen. Olurin was not known in the  world of party politics until few months ago. However, his closeness to former president Olusegun Obasanjo and some traditional rulers in Ogun State has thrown him up in a rather controversial circumstances as PDP guber candidate for the state

Alhaji Nasir Gboyega Isiaka, a first class Economics graduate of Obafemi Awolowo University was the leader of the Economic Team of incumbent governor of the state, Otunba Gbenga Daniel. By virtue of his position in the government, he is well known as a PDP man and for the past 4 years, he has been touted has the likely successor to Otunba Gbenga Daniel who end his second term tenure this year.

Gboyega Isiaka was however caught in the crossfire between the factions fighting for the body and soul of the PDP. Infact, Gboyega won the PDP primaries that was recognised by the national body of the party, PDP as well as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), but a Federal High Court in Abuja denied him of the victory. The court held that the faction of the party which threw up Gen. Olurin as the PDP candidate of the state should be recognized by the INEC. The rulling was a shocker to many PDP followers in the government of Otunba Gbenga Daniel and at the end of the day, the supporters of Gboyega Isiaka moved en-masse to form a new political party called People's Party of Nigeria (PPN). It was said that Otunba Gbenga Daniel had registered the party secretly as he had pre-empted the outcome of the court process. Gboyega Isiaka and all other political office seekers from Senate to House of Assembly seats,  loyal to Governor Daniel are now contesting the next month's election under the banner of PPN.

The three parties slugging it out are ACN (Ibikunle Amosun), PDP (Gen. Tunji Olurin) and PPN (Gboyega Nasir Isiaka).

Gboyega Isiaka

Political analysts watching the scenario in Ogun State have concluded that the PDP in Ogun State will have to work extra hard in other to make any impact in the coming election. An observer said, 'when all the followers of Gbenga Daniel left the PDP for PPN, they took the soul of the party away and left only the body'.

Though, there are still some big wigs in the Ogun PDP, like former President Olusegun Obasanjo, the minister of Commerce, Jubril Martins Kuye, Chief Sule Onabiyi, Alh. Sarafa Ishola and the party's new financier and controversial moneybag, Prince Kashamu Buruji. Some pundits would argue that apart from Martins Kuye, Sarafa Ishola and probably Kashamu Buruji, the rest of the big wigs including ex president Obasanjo have no electoral value.

'I can tell you pointblank that Obasanjo cannot win in his ward. He has no grass root support  and it's because he has never associated himself with the grassroots. Go to Obasanjo's local government and ask if he ever made anybody a councillor at the local government level. The people that counts in the PDP now are JMK and Sarafa Ishola,' a source injected.

However, in the three senatorial districts of the state, Ogun Central, Ogun West and Ogun East, the PDP is very strong in Ogun East with the likes of Jubril Martins Kuye and with the financial muscle of Kashamu Buruji. In Ogun Central, Sarafa Isola and Iyabo Obasanjo are seen as the backbone of the party and the PDP is not seen as stronger than the two other parties; ACN and PPN.

In Ogun West, it seems the PDP has lost focus as there is no visible strong leader, which now leaves the opposition to have a field day. Even, the fact that Gen. Olurin, who is the PDP candidate is from Ilaro, the headquarters of Ogun West is not making any impact as all the political bigwigs in the party have defected to the PPN.

When Governor Daniel did not win the first battle of the PDP in the Federal High Court, he immediately moved all his supporters to a new political party, the PPN while he refused to leave the PDP.

In Ogun West, all the Who is Who in the PDP have defected to the PPN with the guber candidate, Gboyega Isiaka who is from Imeko Afon local government flying the party’s flag high. Senator Ayo Otegbola, the senatorial leader of the district led other big wigs like Hon. Waliu Taiwo, who is contesting under the PPN for the Ogun West Senatorial district, Senator Iyabo Anishulowo, Mrs Iyabo Apampa and Engr. Tunji Akinosi, a grass root mobilizer who is currently the Ogun State commissioner for Agriculture to the new party.

Another advantage going for the PPN is the involvement of the state branches of both the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW) and the Road Transport Employers Association of Nigeria (RTEAN) in the new party. The daughter of the NURTW boss in the Southwest is contesting for a House of Assembly slot in the state under the PPN while the wife of RTEAN is the incumbent Secretary to the Local Government in Ado Odo/Ota local government and also a PPN member. It is a known fact that both NURTW and RTEAN are strong factors in political mobilization in this terrain.

The Ogun Central which on the face of it, has a balance of power between the three political powers has many young turks and political gladiators in the PPN.

With Hon. Bukola Olopade, Commissioner for Youth and Sports and Prince Yanju Lipede standing firm for the PPN in Abeokuta South. Chief Yomi Majekkodunmi, Chief Niyi Adegbenro, Aare Kola Alabi, Chief Derin Adebiyi, Chief Coker Aderupoko, Chief Ademosu, Alhaji Ismail Odejimi and other chieftains in the PPN, it is sure that the party will have a very big size of the next month's votes. Though, there are talks of some politicians who refused to go to the PPN and opted to work for the PDP like former speaker of the House of Assembly, Mrs Titi Oseni, ex Ifo local government boss, Sikirullahi Ogundele and an aide of Gov. Daniel, Mr Segun Sowunmi.

Tunji Olurin

 But some Abeokuta based PPN members have said those that stayed in PDP have no electoral value. 'What electoral value does Segun Sowunmi has. He is not even known in his Abeokuta South. Even Titi Oseni, if not for Ozogbula (Bukola Olopade), do you think she has any followership?' a PPN member told us last week.

The fight of the government machinery through the next month ballot exercise will be fierce in Ijebu land (Ogun East Senatorial District). Though, Governor Daniel is still in PDP, it is an open secret that he has directed all his supporters, including all the local government chairmen to deliver the votes for PPN.

The Commissioner for Works, Prince Segun Adekoya who is contesting for a House of Reps seat, Akogun Kola Onadipe, Hon. Gbenga Oduwaiye, Otunba Alex Onabanjo, Mrs Jokotade Odunuga-Odebunmi (deputy governorship candidate of PPN) are all battle ready. And they've vowed to deliver their local governments.

But the likes of Jubril Martins Kuye and Kashamu Buruji of the PDP will not 'siddon look'. They will surely make the fight more interesting.

With the bitter fight in PDP which led to the mass defection of its members to the PPN, the ACN guber candidate, Senator Ibikunle Amosun is thanking his stars. The ACN sees the break up in the PDP as a blessing for the party.

In Ogun central, which is the base of the ACN flagbearer, it is seen that Ibikunle Amosun will make a big impact. He has the support of Abeokuta indigenes who believe the governorship of the state should come to the Egba people. The factor of former governor Olusegun Osoba cannot be underestimated. Amosun is a political fighter and he contested the last guber election against incumbent Gov. Daniel in 2007 under All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP). So, he knows the terrain and has his political warriors. The ACN will give the PPN and PDP a good fight in Egbaland.

Ogun West may be difficult for the ACN to have a field day owing to the fact that both the guber candidate of PDP and PPN are from this region. But the ACN will still penetrate some local governments that share boundary with Lagos state, like Ado Odo/Ota local government. The influence of the ACN in the local government became ever stronger with the emergence of Akin Odunsi, the boss of Rosabel advertising who is from Ota as its senatorial candidate. But the PPN senatorial candidate, Hon. Waliu Taiwo, an old horse in politics and great grass root mobilizer once told our reporter that Akin Odunsi is a small fry and poses no challenge to him.

In Ogun East senatorial district, the ACN will have a herculean task of defeating both the PDP and PPN. Though, the party will make appreciable impact in places controled by the likes of Gbenga Kaka, who served as Osoba's deputy and Chief Segun Adesegun who was also a commissioner in Osoba's government.

In the final analysis, political watchers seen PPN making a strong impact, if it puts its house in order and embark on massive and populist campaign strategy.

April 05, 2011