By the time you're reading this, the Duchess of Cambridge
could be in labor. Or it could be a matter of hours. Or days. Or weeks.
As Britain's Prince William and his wife, Kate, await the
birth of their first child — and the future heir to the English throne — some
are convinced the royal due date has already passed, even though Buckingham
Palace has not given an exact date. Many in the British media predicted the
baby would be born last week and the prince himself is now on official leave.
Dozens of reporters have already staked out the central
London hospital where Kate is expected to give birth. The palace has said only
that the Duchess is due to deliver the baby in "mid-July."
But experts say there's no reason to think that the baby is
actually overdue; due dates are at best an educated guess and come with a
margin of error of two to three weeks.
"The baby will come when he or she is ready," said
Janet Fyle, a midwife and professional policy adviser at Britain's Royal
College of Midwives.
Due date
She said the due date is calculated from the first day of
the woman's last period. Then add seven days, plus nine months. "But
nature is the primary determinant (of the due date) and we can't do anything to
change that," Fyle said.
An ultrasound done around weeks 11 to 12 of the pregnancy
can also give women a better idea of when exactly to get the nursery ready, she
said. A head measurement at that point is a better indicator of age than later
in pregnancy.
For healthy pregnant women, as the Duchess of Cambridge
appears to be, Fyle said they shouldn't worry if they haven't given birth by
their predicted due date.
Pregnancies last 40 weeks
Normal pregnancies last about 40 weeks, though 3-12% of
women in the UK go beyond that term. After 41 to 42 weeks, doctors may consider
inducing labor.
"There is a risk as the pregnancy goes on that the
placenta may not work as well," said Dr Daghni Rajasingam, a spokeswoman
for Britain's Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.
She said that could compromise the baby's growth and oxygen
supply. For women who don't want to have an induced labor, even if they are
beyond 40 weeks, Rajasingam said extra scans to monitor the baby's heartbeat
and movement would be necessary.
Although the Duchess of Cambridge was hospitalized last
December for severe morning sickness, Rajasingam said there's no reason to
think she might have a more difficult labor. Pregnant women are also advised to
keep as active as possible even after their due date passes.
Rajasingam also said women having their first baby, as in
the case of the Duchess, typically have a longer pregnancy than with subsequent
children, though scientists aren't exactly sure why. "It's like a
racehorse on a track," she said. "For a horse that hasn't run the
race before, it can take a little bit longer if you're not used to it,"
she said.
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