Gartner: Worldwide Smartphone Sales to Grow 11% in 2021

5G Smartphones Are Forecast to Account for 35% of Total Smartphone Sales in 2021

Gartner, the market research firm, predicts 11.4 percent year-on-year growth in the global smartphone market, with 1.5 billion phones sold in 2021. Smartphone sales took a major hit and witnessed a 10.5 percent decline in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, 2021 is predicted to see a return to former levels, as the markets open up again, with expectations being highest from mature markets. The report also predicts that the user demand for 5G smartphones will increase this year, and will represent 35 percent of the total smartphone sales in 2021.

“In 2020, consumers reduced spending on smartphones but availability of new products, will see users drive significant uptick in demand in 2021,” said Anshul Gupta, senior research director at Gartner. “The combination of delayed smartphone replacements and the availability of lower end 5G smartphones are poised to increase smartphone sales in 2021.” Gartner analysts expect smartphone sales in 2021 to be close to 2019 levels.

After recording a 10.5% decline in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the industry, smartphone sales are forecast to rebound in 2021. Mature Asia Pacific, Western Europe, and Latin America are expected to exhibit the strongest growth between 2020 and 2021 (see Table 1).

Table 1. Worldwide Smartphone Sales by Region, 2019-2021 (Thousands of Units)

Region	2019	2020	2021
Eastern Europe	47,358	42,960	49,364
Emerging Asia/Pacific	369,359	336,897	365,891
Eurasia	48,341	43,473	47,261
Greater China	407,449	368,016	409,968
Latin America	131,954	116,301	134,349
Mature Asia/Pacific	31,085	26,311	30,457
Middle East and North Africa	75,208	71,477	79,112
North America	159,974	136,257	151,750
Sub-Saharan Africa	91,537	84,440	94,293
Western Europe	146,747	125,430	142,796
Japan	31,643	27,159	30,118
Grand Total	1,540,655	1,378,719	1,535,358

Source: Gartner (February 2021)

5G Is the Next Frontier of Growth for Smartphones

The growing availability of 5G networks coupled with a higher variety of 5G smartphones starting at $200 will steer demand in mature markets and China. Demand in emerging countries will be driven by buyers looking for a smartphone with better specifications and a 5G connectivity as an optional feature. Gartner forecasts sales of 5G smartphones will total 539 million units worldwide in 2021, which will represent 35% of total smartphone sales in that year (see Table 2).

Table 2. 5G Smartphone Sales Forecast, 2019-2021, Worldwide (Thousands of Units)

	2019	2020	2021
5G Smartphones	16,705	213,260	538,530

Source: Gartner (February 2021)

“5G is now a standard feature in premium smartphones, especially in the U.S., China, Japan and South Korea,” said Mr. Gupta. “Driven by lower-cost models, adoption is particularly aggressive in China, where 5G smartphone share is on pace to reach 59.5% in 2021. In addition, lower end 5G smartphones, which are becoming more prevalent outside China, are poised to drive more momentum for 5G smartphones in 2021 across all regions.”

Gartner clients can read more in “Forecast: Mobile Phones,Worldwide, 2018-2024, 4Q20 Update.”

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February 04, 2021