Tourism is not expected to return to pre-COVID levels until
2023 or later, costing the world somewhere between $1.7 trillion and $2.4
trillion in 2021, based on three
scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic, and a third scenario in which the uneven
rollout of vaccines is considered). On average, in the absence of any economic
stimulus, a drop in tourist sales leads
to a 2.5 fold loss in real GDP due to linkages with upstream sectors like
agriculture, according to the study.
Developing countries could account for 60% of these loses
owing to asymmetric vaccine roll-out globally the report said. Tourism is
likely to pick up faster this summer in North America and Europe where
vaccination rates are higher.
The impact of travel restrictions could be felt particularly
by women and young people who are employed in significant proportions by the
tourism sector, where barriers to entry
are low. Some 100 -120 million tourism jobs are at stake as per the report.
The report recommends quick rollout of vaccines globally to
bring back tourism, including in developing countries. It has commended the
European Union’s (EU) digital COVID certificate and acknowledges the
International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) travel pass which includes a vaccine
certificate and test results. Agreed protocols for testing on departure could
mean quarantine on arrival is not necessary, the report says.
The report also recommends socio-economic measures to
protect livelihoods. “Workers should be
protected rather specific jobs in declining sectors, for example through
training,” it says. Finally, some tourism-related businesses will not survive
even after restrictions are removed, the report says, advising governments to
decide which ones to support and for what duration.
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