By Anthony Kitimo
In fact, the slump in tourism will contribute to a real
gross domestic product (GDP) loss of about 9.3 percent of the East African
economy this year, with the region ranked second among mostly affected regions
by the pandemic globally, after Central America.
According to a study by UNWTO on the effects of Covid-19 on
tourism released this month, North Africa is expected to record a 7.6 percent
GDP loss with West Africa being the least affected, reporting only a 4.6 per
cent decline.
South Africa tops on the list of the most affected 50
countries to record reduction in tourist arrivals for selected developing
countries in 2020 and ranked number three world wide after Turkey and Ecudor in
recording huge losses in GDP by country from a reduction in tourism.
The study says the crash in international tourism could
cause a loss of more than $4 trillion to the global GDP for the years 2020 and
2021 and that a four-to 12-month standstill in international tourism would cost
the global economy between $1.2 trillion and $3.3 trillion, including indirect
costs.
The study paints a gloomy picture of recovery with a rebound
to pre-pandemic performance expected earliest in 2023 or later.
"The global economy is expected to lose more than $4
trillion for 2020 and 2021, much worse than anticipated, as an uneven
vaccination rollout crushes developing countries that are highly dependent on
international visitors," says the report.
The report indicates the number of international tourists
arrivals globally declined by 74 percent in 2020 compared with the previous
year.
In many developing countries, arrivals were down by 80-90
per cent.
The beginning of the year 2021 has been worse for most
destinations, with an average global decline of 88 per cent as compared to
pre-pandemic level, although the northern summer and autumn may see a
significant improvement for some destinations, in particular for domestic and
regional travel.
The indirect effects of this decline are even more
devastating, as labour and capital remain unused and the lack of demand for
intermediate goods and services has a negative upstream effect into many
sectors. This note attempts to quantify these effects and shows how the rollout
of vaccines may affect these estimates.
In most developing countries, access to and distribution of
vaccines is a limiting factor, and the virus continues to spread at an alarming
rate and in many countries where tourism is important for people's livelihood.
Nearly half of the experts interviewed see a return to 2019
levels in 2024 or later which is attributed to travel restrictions, slow
containment of the virus, low traveler confidence and a poor economic
environment.
The report recommends implementation of three policy
dimensions, first, restoring the confidence of travellers, who are concerned
about health, and the risk of cancelled travel plans and becoming stranded
overseas by ensuring vaccine is available for all. Second, governments to
safeguard jobs by initiating fiscal measures to support tourism businesses and
workers. Third, a need for countries to make strategic decisions regarding the
future of tourism in their countries and governments need to decide which businesses
to support and for how long, while allowing others to die out.
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