Nearly two years into a global health crisis that has killed
more than 5 million people, infections are again sweeping across parts of
Western Europe, a region with relatively high vaccination rates and good health
care systems but where lockdown measures are largely a thing of the past.
The World Health Organization said coronavirus deaths rose
by 10% in Europe in the past week, and an agency official declared last week
that the continent was “back at the epicenter of the pandemic.” Much of that is
being driven by spiraling outbreaks in Russia and Eastern Europe — where
vaccination rates tend to be low — but countries in the west such as Germany
and Britain recorded some of the highest new case tolls in the world.
While nations in Western Europe all have vaccination rates
over 60% — and some like Portugal and Spain are much higher — that still leaves
a significant portion of their populations without protection.
Dr. Bharat Pankhania, senior clinical lecturer at Exeter
University College of Medicine and Health, says that the large number of
unvaccinated people combined with a widespread post-lockdown resumption of
socializing and a slight decline in immunity for people who got their shots
months ago is driving up the pace of infections.
Thanks largely to vaccination, hospitals in Western Europe
are not under the same pressure they were earlier in the pandemic, but many are
still straining to handle rising numbers of COVID patients while also
attempting to clear backlogs of tests and surgeries with exhausted or sick
staff. Even the countries experiencing the most serious outbreaks in the region
recorded far fewer deaths per person over the past four weeks than the United
States did, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
The question now is if countries can tamp down this latest
upswing without resorting to stringent shutdowns that devastated economies,
disrupted education and weighed on mental health. Experts say probably — but
authorities can’t avoid all restrictions and must boost vaccination rates.
“I think the era of locking people up in their homes is over
because we now have tools to control COVID — the testing, vaccines and
therapeutics,” said Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at the
University of Edinburgh. “So I hope people will do the things they have to do,
like put on a mask.”
Many European countries now use COVID passes — proof of full
vaccination, recovery from the virus or a negative test result — to access
venues like bars and restaurants. Pankhania warned that the passes can give a
false sense of security since fully vaccinated people can still get infected,
though their chances of dying or getting seriously sick are dramatically lower.
But restrictions don’t go much further these days, although
the Dutch government on Friday announced a three-week partial lockdown.
“Tonight we have a very unpleasant message with very
unpleasant and far-reaching decisions,” caretaker Prime Minister Mark Rutte
said.
German lawmakers are mulling legislation that would pave the
way for new measures. Austrian Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg announced
Friday that unvaccinated people in two regions will only be able to leave home
for specified reasons starting Monday, and he is considering implementing
similar measures nationwide. But he has said he doesn’t want to impose the
restrictions on those who got the shot.
Austria is seeing one of the most serious outbreaks in
Western Europe, along with Germany, which has reported a string of record-high
infections in recent days.
“We have a real emergency situation right now,” said
Christian Drosten, the head of virology at Berlin’s Charite Hospital, which has
started canceling scheduled surgeries.
Duesseldorf’s university hospital said earlier this week
that its ICU is full, though many facilities are struggling more with staff
shortages than bed space.
Drosten said Germany must increase its vaccination rate of
67% further — and fast. But officials have balked at ordering vaccine mandates
and want to avoid any blanket lockdowns.
Health Minister Jens Spahn indicated that Germany could
improve its often lax enforcement of COVID pass requirements.
“If my vaccination certificate is checked more often in one
day in Rome than it sometimes is in four weeks in Germany, then I think more
can be done,” Spahn said recently.
The Netherlands is in a similar bind: The country announced
the highest daily tally of new cases since the pandemic began Thursday,
hospitals are warning the situation could get worse, but officials are
reluctant to clamp down too hard. Amid these concerns, organizers in Utrecht
said they couldn’t in good conscience bring tens of thousands of people
together to greet Santa at the annual Sinterklaas party beloved of children.
Cities in Germany, by contrast, went ahead with outdoor
Carnival celebrations this week — but the head of Cologne’s party, Carnival
Prince Sven I., canceled public appearances after testing positive.
In the United Kingdom, which lifted remaining restrictions
in July and has seen big spikes as well as dips in cases since, Prime Minister
Boris Johnson insists the country can “live with the virus.” The government
will only reimpose restrictions if the health service comes under “unsustainable”
pressure, he says.
Spain, once one of Europe’s hardest hit nations, perhaps
offers an example of how the risks can be managed.
It has vaccinated 80% of its population, and while face
masks are no longer mandatory outdoors, many people still wear them. While
infections have ticked up slightly recently, Rafael Bengoa, one of Spain’s
leading public health experts, said that given the high vaccination rate, “the
virus won’t be able to dominate us again.”
Several countries are hoping that pushing harder on
immunizations will get them there. Germany plans to re-open vaccination centers
across the country to speed booster shots. France is also pinning its hopes on
booster doses while urging holdouts to get their first shots. Italy is also
expanding its booster program as numbers edge higher.
Pankhania says that no single measure will control the
pandemic.
“To really control it, it has to be multi-layered ... avoid
crowds, avoid poorly ventilated places, be immunized, wear your mask,” he said.
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