Nigeria IMF Urges Nigeria, Others to Devalue Currencies, Raise Interest Rates

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), has advised emerging economies including Nigeria to allow their currencies to depreciate in response to tighter funding conditions and an imminent policy tightening by the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States.

The Washington-based lender also counseled the Central Bank of Nigeria and the apex banks of emerging economies to raise their benchmark interest rate in preparation for the Fed policy tightening

According to The Whistler, the multilateral lender gave the advice in a report titled, ‘Emerging economies must prepare for Fed policy tightening.’

It noted that emerging markets with high public and private debts, foreign exchange exposures, and lower current-account balances had been seeing larger movements of their currencies relative to the US dollar in recent months.

As a result, the IMF said the combination of slower growth and elevated vulnerabilities could create adverse feedback loops for emerging economies.

The IMF said, “Some emerging markets have already started to adjust monetary policy and are preparing to scale back fiscal support to address rising debt and inflation.

“In response to tighter funding conditions, emerging markets should tailor their response based on their circumstances and vulnerabilities.

“Those with policy credibility on containing inflation can tighten monetary policy more gradually, while others with stronger inflation pressures or weaker institutions must act swiftly and comprehensively.”

The IMF said heavily indebted countries might need to start fiscal adjustment sooner and faster.

The advice is coming as the value of the currency has dropped to N414.26 at the CBN official foreign exchange window, down from the N410 which the bank adopted in May last year.

At the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting held in November last year, the CBN retained its benchmark lending rate at 11.5 percent.

The rate was cut in September 2020 from 12.5 percent to encourage output growth after the country slipped into recession.

Ordinarily, in the past, the apex bank would raise interest rates to fight rising inflation which is at 15.99 percent as of October 2021.

The CBN governor Godwin Emefiele had said that the monetary authority was faced with the dilemma of tackling inflation and output growth.

Emefiele had said, “So far, evidence has not supported the rising inflation to monetary factors but rather, evidence suggests non-monetary factors (structural factors) as the overwhelming reasons accounting for the inflationary pressure.”

But the IMF in the new report said, “To manage these trade-offs, emerging markets can take steps now to strengthen policy frameworks and reduce vulnerabilities.

“For central banks tightening to contain inflation pressures, clear and consistent communication of policy plans can enhance the public’s understanding of the need to pursue price stability.

“Countries with high levels of debt denominated in foreign currencies should look to reduce those mismatches and hedge their exposures where feasible.

“And to reduce roll-over risks, the maturity of obligations should be extended even if it increases costs. Heavily indebted countries may also need to start fiscal adjustment sooner and faster.”

January 12, 2022