Ford's EU-based production is forecast to be 65 percent electric by 2029 |
Globally, more than half of all new vehicles coming off of
production lines in 2029 would need to be electric for the sector to be
compliant with the goal of capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius above
preindustrial levels, according to Influence Map, a research NGO that evaluates
corporate climate goals and policies.
At the same time, 11 of the 12 carmakers — while publicly
supporting the Paris Agreement —have actively opposed government policies to
accelerate the shift to electric vehicles, especially the phase-out internal
combustion engines, Influence Map said.
Japanese auto giants Toyota, Honda and Nissan are especially
far off the mark, with non-polluting cars accounting for only 14, 18 and 22
percent, respectively, of their planned production in 2029, the report said.
South Korea's Hyundai, US manufacturer Ford and France's
Renault — with 27, 28 and 31 percent of their global fleets projected to be
electric in seven years — were only marginally more on track.
The standout exception is US-based Tesla, a "pure
player" manufacturer that has only ever made electric cars and trucks.
Lagging behind "Almost all automakers are failing to
keep pace with the transition to zero emissions," said Influence Map
program Manager Ben Youriev.
"Those lagging the furthest behind are also the most
negative when it comes to climate policy advocacy."
Ford, Stellantis, Volkswagen and BMW come closer to the 52
percent threshold for compatibility with Paris temperature target, with 36 to
46 percent of their fleets planned to be electric in 2029.
Besides Tesla, only Mercedes-Benz — at 56 percent — is
projecting a transition in keeping with that target.
To evaluate automaker trajectories, Influence Map
cross-references different datasets.
Researchers used the International Energy Agency's (IEA)
scenario for decarbonising the transport sector rapidly enough to not
jeopardise the 1.5C goal, which would need 57.5 percent of all cars produced in
2030 to be electric.
The IEA's Net Zero by 2050 report also assumes the share of renewables
in global electricity generation would be about 60 percent in 2030.
The Influence Map report then compared this goal with IHS
Markit production forecasts to 2029, corresponding to a 52 percent share of
electric vehicles in the IEA schema.
Collectively, the combined global production of battery
electric vehicles by all automakers is forecast to only reach 32 percent by
2029.
That means the auto industry would need to boost production
of zero-emission cars by 80 percent in order to hit the IEA 2030 production
target.
Impact of government policy The report findings reveal the
critical impact of government policy on the pace of the transition away from
internal combustion engines, which account for around 16 percent of global
energy-related CO2 emissions, according to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC).
In the European Union, which aims to cut greenhouse gas
emissions to 55 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, Toyota's produced fleet is
projected to be 50 percent electric by 2029.
But in the United States, where fuel emissions standards are
less stringent, that figure is only four percent.
Similarly, Ford's EU-based production is forecast to be 65
percent electric by 2029 — nearly double it's global average.
One pension fund with shares in Toyota and Volkswagen
expressed concern about the Influence of the Map findings.
"As investors, we are concerned with the picture
painted which confirms that some companies in the auto industry are placing
themselves on the wrong side of history when actively opposing much needed
climate change-related rules and regulations," Anders Schelde, CIO of
Denmark's AkademikerPension, with $20 billion of assets under management, told
AFP.
"We are also worried about Toyota scoring worst among
peers on climate lobbying as the company is jeopardising its valuable
brand."