Standard Chartered Bank sees the naira trading at N685 per US dollar by the end of June as Nigeria quickens the pace of implementing reforms needed to fix its foreign exchange market.
“We now forecast USD-NGN at 685.00 at the end Q2-2023 (from
480 previously), rising to 720 in Q3-2023 (520 prior), before appreciating
thereafter as the market stabilises,” Razia Khan, head of research, Africa
& Middle East and Samir Gadio, head of Africa strategy both at Standard
Chartered bank said in a June 14 note to investors.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) quoted the naira at 585
per US dollar on Thursday, 12 percent higher than the closing rate of N664 the
previous day. The apex bank had on Wednesday scrapped its hard currency peg and
allowed banks to freely set market rates for the sale of foreign exchange.
Investors cheered the move with the stock market rising for
a second straight day after hitting a 15-year high only the day before,
following the suspension of CBN governor Godwin Emefiele whose unorthodox
monetary policies had drained investor confidence.
Nigeria’s bold move towards achieving a unified exchange
rate after years of a multiple exchange rate practice that spooked investors
and drew the criticism of economists is the latest of a list of reforms by new
President Bola Tinubu who has also scrapped a costly petrol subsidy program.
“Inflation is likely to recede following initial subsidy
reforms and changes to monetary policy, while offshore investor interest in LCY
debt might eventually return, and a combination of asset sales and other FDI
could further stabilise FX reserves,” Khan and Gadio said.