India-China relations have been tense since the biggest
military confrontation in decades on their disputed Himalayan border killed 20
Indian and at least four Chinese soldiers in June 2020. Thousands of troops
remain mobilised on each side.
Since the clash, India has made it difficult for Chinese
companies to invest, banned hundreds of popular apps and severed passenger
routes, although direct cargo flights still operate between the Asian giants.
Direct flights would benefit both economies, but the stakes
are higher for China, where a recovery in overseas travel after the COVID-19
pandemic is lagging, while India's aviation sector booms.
Several times over the past year or so, China's government
and airlines have asked India's civil aviation authorities to re-establish
direct air links, two people with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters,
with one saying China considers this a "big issue".
"We hope the Indian side will work with China in the
same direction for the early resumption of direct flights," China's
Foreign Ministry told Reuters in a statement last week, adding that resuming
flights would be in both countries' interests.
But a senior Indian official familiar with India-China
bilateral developments said of Beijing's desire to resume flights: "Unless
there is peace and tranquillity on the border, the rest of the relationship
cannot move forward."
Indian airlines are holding discussions with New Delhi,
while Chinese carriers are talking to their government about resuming direct
routes, CEO Pieter Elbers of Indigo, India's largest airline, told Reuters.
India's external affairs and civil aviation ministries did
not respond to requests for comment.
Beijing has repeatedly protested India's ramped up scrutiny
of Chinese businesses since 2020. Chinese smartphone giant Xiaomi told India's
government this year that "confidence building" measures were needed
as component suppliers were wary about setting up in India, citing compliance
and visa issues.
'BEYOND OUR LEVEL'
Direct India-China flights peaked in December 2019, with a
total of 539 scheduled flights by the likes of IndiGo, Air India, China
Southern, China Eastern, Air China and Shandong Airlines, data from aviation
analytics firm Cirium shows.
Chinese carriers scheduled 371 of those flights, more than
double the 168 by India's airlines.
Flights were halted four months later as the pandemic
escalated. Except for a smattering of COVID repatriation flights, they have not
resumed even though India lifted COVID restrictions on international air routes
a year later and China lifted all COVID travel measures in early 2023.
Travellers must now change planes either in Hong Kong, which
has a separate aviation regulator and border controls from the rest of China,
or in hubs like Dubai or Singapore.
This has lengthened the India-China journey from less than
six hours to upwards of 10, handing business - including lucrative through
traffic to the United States - to carriers like Emirates, Singapore Airlines and
Cathay Pacific.
The recovery in Chinese overseas travel is lagging due to
rising costs and difficulties in securing visas for the world's top spenders on
international tourism and airlines.
Indigo's Elbers said a recent interview in Dubai, "When
the time is right and the governments come to a mutual understanding of how to
move forward, we'll assess the market."
IndiGo flies seven times a week on the Delhi-Hong Kong
route, where passengers can connect to mainland China.
Air India CEO Campbell Wilson said direct India-China
flights "would seem to be a huge potential market" but for now there
are factors at play "beyond our level".