The Bank of Japan announced on Wednesday that it will increase its short-term interest rate to 0.25% and will begin to decrease the volume of bonds purchased as part of its quantitative easing initiative.
Following a two-day policy meeting, the central bank
confirmed that the decision to raise the policy rate was made unanimously.
Additionally, the monthly bond purchases will be reduced to 3 trillion yen
($19.65 billion) by early 2026, which is half of the current target.
As a result of this news, government bond yields experienced
a slight decline, while the yen maintained its initial strength against the
dollar.
QUOTES:
MATT SIMPSON, SENIOR MARKET ANALYST, CITY INDEX, BRISBANE
"Bots were quick to bid the yen on the surprise of a
15-basis-point hike, but gains were just as quick to evaporate on the hollow
headline numbers.
"Yes, the BOJ hiked more aggressively than the 10bp
expected, but they fell short on their 'detailed plan' of tapering.
"And in the grand scheme of things, the 15bp hike still
takes their interest rate to 25bp. I suspect the yen will weaken heading into
the FOMC meeting later today."
FRED NEUMANN, CHIEF ASIA ECONOMIST, HSBC, HONG KONG
"The BOJ took the plunge. Despite sluggish consumer
spending, monetary officials sent a decisive signal by raising interest rates
and allowing for more gradual balance sheet reduction. Despite sluggish
consumer spending, rising wages are offering room for optimism that growth will
recover in the coming quarters. Rising inflation expectations also open the
path for ongoing monetary policy normalization by the BOJ. Barring major
disruptions, the BOJ is on course to tighten further, with another interest
hike by the start of next year."
MARCEL THIELIANT, HEAD OF ASIA-PACIFIC, CAPITAL ECONOMICS,
SINGAPORE
"The bank sounded more confident that a virtuous cycle
between prices and wages is underway as it noted that moves to raise wages have
not only been observed at large firms but have been spreading across regions,
industries and firm sizes. The bank argued that there's has been a
strengthening of moves to reflect wage increases in selling prices. All this is
consistent with our view that the bank will deliver another rate hike at its
October meeting.
"However, in contrast to what financial markets are
pricing in, we don't foresee any further hikes next year as underlying
inflation will fall below the bank's 2% target due to falling import
costs."
MIKI DEN, SENIOR JAPAN RATE STRATEGIST, SMBC NIKKO
SECURITIES, TOKYO
"Compared with the scale of reduction in JGBs for
maturities less than five years, the cuts in bond purchases for 5-10 years were
smaller, which indicate the BOJ's willingness to contain the rise in the
10-year JGB yield. The yields on shorter maturities will tend to rise as a
result of the new purchase plans, and that means the yield curve will
flatten."
IZURU KATO, CHIEF ECONOMIST, TOTAN RESEARCH
"The decision to raise interest rates came likely to
correct excessive monetary easing reflecting the real policy rate that slides
deep into negative territory.
"Although the BOJ had explained all along that monetary
policy was not targeting currencies, the weak yen must be a major factor behind
today's decision given that it dealt a blow to SMEs in rural Japanese regions.
"You can say that the extent of the rate hike was
rather small and symbolic. There's no need to fret about accelerating rate
hikes, as the BOJ's rate hikes in March and July together reached an extent an
ordinary central bank does in one go. It doesn't mean that the BOJ has turned
hawkish all of sudden. Going forward, the BOJ will remain cautious against
tightening policy too hastily."
VASU MENON, MANAGING DIRECTOR OF INVESTMENT STRATEGY, OCBC,
SINGAPORE
"The BOJ's rate hike and reduction of its balance sheet
was widely anticipated, and the yen has reacted with sharp gains against the
dollar in the past three weeks already. Whether we will see further gains now
depends on whether Governor Ueda adopts a hawkish tone and offers clear forward
guidance at the press conference.
"It is hard to see Ueda going full-on hawkish given the
recent mixed economic data from Japan. Much also hinges on what the U.S. Fed
says and does after its policy meeting today. If the U.S. central bank takes a
stronger dovish tilt it could cause some dollar weakness and consequently cause
the yen to strengthen against the greenback."
MIN JOO KANG, SENIOR ECONOMIST FOR SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN,
ING, SEOUL "We think the Bank of Japan's rate hike today is because recent
data has given the BOJ confidence that the economy is in a virtuous cycle
between wage growth and consumption. Although the JPY has changed direction
recently, the BOJ may have become more concerned that excessive JPY weakness
could have a negative impact on the economy regarding to quarterly outlook, the
downward revision of GDP for the current FY looks quite minimal from 0.8% to
0.6%.
TAKUMI TSUNODA, SENIOR ECONOMIST, SHINKIN CENTRAL BANK
RESEARCH INSTITUTE, TOKYO
"A 0.25% rate only means lighter monetary easing
(rather than tightening) and it's low relative to the current economic
situations in Japan. BOJ may proceed with a further hike to 0.5%, probably in
January or March. Japan's economy today seems to be in line with a 0.5%
short-term rate or 1.5% long-term rate.
"You don't have to worry too much about excessive yen
strengthening (due to BOJ's action). Rather, there could be a slight risk of
discouraging consumer confidence by letting mortgage rates rise a bit, but
overall, the benefit of the end of weak yen to smaller firms' earnings and
workers' wages will outweigh the negative effects."
RYUTARO KIMURA, FIXED INCOME STRATEGIST, AXA INVESTMENT
MANAGERS, TOKYO
"With the exclusion of super-long JGBs from the JGB
purchases reduction plan for August-September, it seems that there will be a
brake on the steepening of the yield curve. The BOJ is likely aware of the
situation where the demand for super-long-term bonds from life insurance
companies, aimed at complying with economic value-based solvency regulation,
can no longer be expected.
"Given the long-term correlation between the BOJ's
purchases of 5-10 year maturity JGBs and 25-year or longer maturity JGBs, and
the 30-year to 10-year yield spread, it is likely that reductions in JGB
purchases, particularly focused on long-term bonds, will help a flattening of
the yield curve at the long end."
KIERAN WILLIAMS, HEAD OF ASIA FX, INTOUCH CAPITAL MARKETS,
LONDON
"A mixed bag from the BoJ, almost something for
everyone but appearing more hawkish at the margin. While the central bank cut
JGB purchases by less than expected, they committed to a plan to continue the
reductions going forward with a goal of halving purchases in the next 18
months, and left some wiggle room to alter the plan if needed.
"The real kicker was the surprise rate hike, expected
by only a minority of forecasters and at 15bps in line with the most aggressive
prediction. BoJ Governor Ueda also gave some hawkish concession when he said
the bank would embark on more rate hikes if the economy continued to progress
as forecasted, as opposed to guidance in March that said financial conditions
would be maintained given the price outlook.
GARETH BERRY, FX AND RATES STRATEGIST, MACQUARIE GROUP,
SINGAPORE
"The BOJ policy decision was in line with expectations,
which had been revised after a media leak 12 hours beforehand. The policy rate
was hiked by +15bp to 0.25%, and the policy statement signalled that further
rate hikes are in the pipeline provided inflation plays out in the way the
central bank expects.
"Quantitative tightening will take place in a
predictable manner over the next two years - the pace of JGB purchases will be
slowly reduced and allowed to fall below the pace of maturities among the BOJ's
existing JGB holdings."
NORIHIRO YAMAGUCHI, SENIOR JAPAN ECONOMIST, OXFORD
ECONOMICS, TOKYO
"I had thought that a rate hike was unlikely this time,
given that the BOJ were to announce the plan for QE exit. Also, hard data for
both income and consumption doesn't really show a positive cycle between wages
and inflation yet. But today's decision revealed the bank's strong appetite for
hiking rates while they can.
"On the JGB purchases, the reduction was within the
consensus, so I believe it won't move the market a lot. After all it's a very
gradual stepdown."
IROFUMI SUZUKI, CHIEF FX STRATEGIST, SMBC, TOKYO
"The latest developments show that the BOJ will
gradually raise interest rates. Another rate hike is expected towards the end
of this year or early next year. Monthly purchase pace of JGBs is in line of
market expectations.
"In the short term, the yen is likely to appreciate,
but over time, market participants will turn their attention to the FOMC and
U.S. employment data."
CHARU CHANANA, HEAD OF CURRENCY STRATEGY, SAXO, SINGAPORE
"This must be one of BOJ's most hawkish moves given how
low it has set the standard to be. The rate hike was well-telegraphed, but
still a surprise that the BOJ delivered on it.
"However, bond-buying tapering appears much more modest
than expected at 400 billion yen per quarter vs. expectations of 1 trillion yen
per month (so, 3 trillion yen per quarter). This raises doubts on whether the
central bank can achieve its target to reduce monthly JGB purchases to 3
trillion yen in two years.
"Pressure on the Japanese yen will likely continue if
the Federal Reserve stays away from a clear indication of a September rate cut
later today." Reuters
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