This has led officials to suggest a more optimistic outlook
for the year, despite the ongoing Western sanctions related to the conflict in
Ukraine.
Industrial output, bolstered by military production,
increased by 3.3% in July, up from a 2.7% rise in June, and has seen a total
growth of 4.8% since the beginning of the year, compared to 3.1% during the
same timeframe in 2023.
A preliminary assessment of gross domestic product (GDP)
growth for the first half of the year is reported at 4.6%, a significant
increase from the 1.8% recorded in the same period last year.
Officials have credited this growth to substantial capital
investment, particularly from the private sector, which surged by 8.3%
year-on-year in the second quarter, reaching 8.44 trillion roubles ($92
billion), following a remarkable 14.5% increase in the first quarter.
"In light of the impressive results achieved in the
first half of the year, we anticipate even greater figures for the entirety of
2024 than our initial projections outlined in the economic forecast released in
April," stated Polina Kryuchkova, the deputy economy minister.
The data indicates that the economy is resilient despite the
impact of Western sanctions and challenges with international payments from key
trading partners like China, which resulted in a 9% decline in total imports
during the first half of the year.
Nonetheless, there are indications of overheating, prompting
the central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points to
18% in July, marking the highest level in over two years.
The central bank identified ongoing labor shortages, wage
increases, and high inflation as primary indicators of an overheated economy,
committing to a stringent monetary policy to combat inflation until it
subsides.
Recent statistics revealed that real wages increased by 6.2%
year-on-year in June, following an 8.8% rise in the previous month, while
average nominal wages surged by 15.3% year-on-year, reaching 89,145 roubles per
month.
Wage growth in Russia is being driven by the compensation
provided to contract soldiers engaged in the conflict in Ukraine, which has set
a new standard in the economy as workers in rapidly expanding sectors facing
significant labor shortages seek comparable salaries from employers.
In the first half of the year, real wages rose by 9.4%,
while nominal wages saw an 18.1% increase compared to the same period in 2023,
according to the latest data.
Unemployment remained at a historically low level of 1.9
million individuals in July, representing 2.4% of the workforce.