A recent report by the Financial Times of London revealed a significant decline in payments made by Nigerian students for the upcoming academic session in UK universities. Compared to the previous year, there has been a substantial drop of 65% in payments.

This concerning trend is not limited to Nigerian students, as payments from Indian students have also decreased by 44% compared to the same period last year.

These two nations are among the top three contributors to the international student population in the UK. The report, citing data from Enroly, a widely used web platform for international student enrollment management, indicates an overall 35% reduction in deposits for UK university courses by foreign students this month compared to August 2023.

This development raises concerns about the potential impact on UK universities, which have become increasingly reliant on the higher tuition fees paid by international students.

Analysts predict a decline in the number of international students enrolling in UK universities, posing financial challenges for the higher education sector.

“This is still going to be a challenging and critical recruitment round for many,” said Paul Kett, senior education and skills adviser at PwC UK.

 “The impact on individual institutions will be highly variable depending on their relative attractiveness and which markets they are predominantly focused on. It’s likely some will need to take further significant action to secure their financial sustainability, ” he added.

The number of international students seeking admission to UK universities has significantly decreased compared to previous years, although there are indications of a modest recovery this month. This situation has left several institutions grappling with financial difficulties.

In May, there was a slight improvement, with a 57 percent decline compared to the same month last year. Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson stated last month that the new Labour government aims to attract international students.

She criticized the negative narrative propagated by the former Conservative government, which sought to reduce overall migration figures. The data reveals a notable drop in applications from Nigeria and India, two of the largest markets for UK universities.

Applications from Nigerian students plummeted by 65 percent, while those from Indian students decreased by 44 percent compared to August 2023. Conversely, smaller markets like Kenya and Nepal have shown an increase in demand compared to the previous year.

Jeffrey Williams, the Chief Executive Officer of Enroly, shared positive indicators of recovery attributed to the new government’s efforts in stabilizing immigration policies. He highlighted the alleviation of concerns surrounding the potential elimination of the postgraduate route work visa, further supported by ongoing political uncertainties in competing markets like Australia and Canada.

Harry Anderson, the Deputy Director of Universities UK International, a prominent sector advocacy organization, stated that the international landscape for universities continues to be unstable as they strive to broaden the variety of countries from which they attract students.

The Labour government has maintained the Conservative policy that restricts most graduate students from bringing family members, a situation that Anderson indicated would continue to pose competitive difficulties for institutions in the UK.

“Most of our competitor destinations do allow students to bring their family members, and most of the growth in recent years has been in postgraduate taught courses where students typically tend to be older and have family members.

“Still, the hope is that stability signalled by the new government will benefit the next admissions cycle after the turbulence of the last 18 months. But the sector needs to be working hard with embassies to communicate this,” Anderson added.

The Office for Students, the regulatory body, has begun preparations for a possible surge in university insolvencies by seeking a contract worth up to £4 million for professional services firms to assist with restructuring initiatives.

This decision follows the revelation in financial accounts that universities had overly optimistic expectations regarding the growth of international student recruitment in the coming years.

In its annual report published in May, the OfS criticized universities for exhibiting "optimism bias" by projecting a 35 percent increase in international student numbers from 2022 to 2026.

Additionally, recent data from the Central Bank of Nigeria's Balance of Payments report for the first half of 2023 indicated that Nigerians spent $896.09 million on foreign education, with a significant portion directed towards the UK.

Foundation courses in the UK range from £10,000 to £15,000, and an average student is estimated to require around £8,000 annually for additional expenses.