A key factor in Venezuela's success has been the leniency shown by the Biden administration, which granted individual licenses allowing Chevron and other partners to transport Venezuelan crude to the United States. Chevron, in particular, has been able to recover substantial debts owed by Venezuela through these oil exports.
Shipments to the U.S. saw a remarkable 64% increase, reaching 222,000 bpd last year, making the United States Venezuela's second-largest crude oil export market.
However, China remains the largest recipient of Venezuelan oil, despite an 18% decline in volumes compared to the previous year. India has emerged as a significant player in the Venezuelan crude market, increasing its imports to 63,115 bpd in 2024, up from just 10,300 bpd the year prior. With a new agreement recently established, India may secure an even larger share of Venezuelan crude in 2025 through a swap deal, following Reliance's suspension of crude purchases from Venezuela in March.
Nevertheless, the sustainability of Venezuela's export gains is uncertain. Ongoing refinery outages continue to disrupt operations, and December's export volume fell to 756,000 bpd from November's high of 974,000 bpd, raising questions about whether this decline is a temporary setback or a longer-term trend.
Additionally, potential shifts in U.S. policies under new leadership could significantly impact future export levels.
As Nicolás Maduro prepares for his controversial third term, Venezuela's oil strategy continues to navigate the delicate balance between domestic needs and international relations. Currently, the country is experiencing a significant increase in crude oil production, which has risen by 17% compared to the previous year, alongside strong partnerships. However, the sustainability of this progress amidst political and operational challenges remains uncertain.