Jet fuel imports into the U.S. are poised to hit a two-year high in March, fueled by increased shipments from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery. Analysts and storage brokers indicate this surge in supply may help ease jet fuel prices just before the busy summer travel period.
Africa’s largest refinery, the 650,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) Dangote facility, is starting to influence global fuel markets. After already challenging European refiners in gasoline exports, it is now gaining a foothold in the U.S. aviation fuel sector.
Record-Breaking Imports from Nigeria
Data from ship-tracking service Kpler reveals that six vessels carrying approximately 1.7 million barrels of jet fuel from Dangote have arrived at U.S. ports this month. Another vessel, the Hafnia Andromeda, is scheduled to deliver an additional 348,000 barrels to the Everglades terminal on March 29.
As a result, U.S. jet fuel imports in March have reached around 226,000 bpd—the highest level since February 2023.
A Temporary but Significant Market Shift
Dangote began production in January after years of construction delays and has since ramped up to about 85% capacity. While the refinery is unlikely to be a regular supplier of jet fuel to the U.S., a temporary shutdown of the Phillips 66 Bayway refinery in New Jersey created an unusual opportunity for Nigerian fuel to enter the market.
However, this window is expected to close soon due to rising U.S. jet fuel inventories, according to Sparta Commodities analyst James Noel-Beswick.
Impact on Storage Demand and Prices
The surge in Nigerian jet fuel imports has significantly increased demand for storage in key U.S. hubs. According to TankTiger, a storage brokerage platform, leasing demand for jet fuel storage in Houston and New York Harbor for April is averaging 700,000 barrels—five to six times the typical monthly demand.
This increased supply is expected to push down U.S. jet fuel prices ahead of the summer travel season. However, economic factors such as a stock market downturn and declining consumer confidence could dampen air travel demand, Noel-Beswick noted.
U.S. Jet Fuel Market Outlook
As of February, U.S. jet fuel inventories stood at 45.2 million barrels—the highest level for that month since 1999, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Despite this stockpile, jet fuel demand remains strong. In 2023, U.S. refiners produced a record yield of jet fuel relative to other transportation fuels. The EIA projects U.S. jet fuel consumption to reach an all-time high by 2026.