This rebuttal comes on the heels of allegations by the Executive Secretary of the Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPPMAN), Olufemi Adewole, who countered claims of a "cabal" hindering the refinery's progress, stating that marketers are simply striving to sustain their businesses through fuel importation. Adewole, while acknowledging the existence of vested interests among private depot owners who have invested significantly in ensuring fuel supply over the years, alleged that the Dangote refinery, despite its impressive 650,000-barrel daily capacity, has yet to meet even the current reduced levels of local consumption. He argued that private depot owners continue to shoulder the primary responsibility for fuel distribution across Nigeria, citing a recent presentation by the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) indicating the refinery's current inability to meet domestic volume demands.
However, a senior source within the Dangote refinery, speaking anonymously due to lack of authorization, presented a starkly different picture. The official stated unequivocally that the refinery is actively exporting fuel after fulfilling local market demands, loading out millions of litres daily. The source questioned the basis upon which marketers concluded the refinery's inadequacy, suggesting that Nigeria's historical fuel consumption figures have been subject to manipulation, particularly during the fuel subsidy era, and that the true consumption volume will eventually be revealed. "We produce more than enough fuel for the local market, and we export," the official affirmed.
Echoing this sentiment, another refinery official emphasized President Bola Tinubu's policy of prioritizing locally produced goods as a vital strategy for economic growth. This source cautioned that importers would likely resist the "Nigeria First Policy" to protect their interests, questioning the rationale behind importing products that can be manufactured domestically.
The spat between the refinery and marketers escalated following accusations by DAPPMAN's boss that Dangote was attempting to monopolize the downstream sector, particularly through recent price reductions. Adewole disclosed that these price adjustments after cargoes had left the loading gantries were causing significant losses for marketers striving to remain operational.
In response, the Dangote source accused some importers of prioritizing profit over the well-being of ordinary Nigerians, alleging their involvement in round-tripping activities during the fuel subsidy regime. The official also challenged the accuracy of the current daily fuel consumption figures, demanding transparency and a disclosure of the "real figure."
Adding another layer to the unfolding narrative, a consultant to the Dangote refinery challenged DAPPMAN, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), and the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) to reveal the refinery's stock levels before asserting its inability to meet local demands. "How did they arrive at the conclusion that the refinery can’t satisfy local needs?" the consultant queried.
It is pertinent to recall Aliko Dangote's recent assertions during a refinery tour, where he stated that the facility would soon reach its full production capacity and that Nigeria's local consumption would not exceed 50 percent of its output. Dangote reiterated that the refinery possesses the capacity to meet 100 percent of Nigeria's refined product needs, with the remaining 60 percent earmarked for export, primarily within Africa.
Further bolstering the refinery's claims, the Vice President of the Dangote Group, Davakumar Edwin, presented production data indicating a daily output of 104 million litres of various petroleum products, including 57 million litres of petrol, 20 million litres of jet fuel, and 37 million litres of diesel. He stated that the local daily consumption stands at approximately 46 million litres, leaving a surplus of 58 million litres for potential export. February data from the refinery's tank farm revealed substantial storage capacities, capable of holding millions of litres of petrol, aviation fuel, and diesel for extended periods, alongside a significant crude oil storage capacity.
Dangote himself had previously highlighted that the refinery's operation would reveal the true daily petrol consumption in Nigeria, aiming to curb fraudulent practices associated with subsidized fuel imports. He expressed confidence in the ability to track loaded trucks and ships, providing a clearer picture of actual consumption patterns.
Interestingly, figures from the NMDPRA appear to present a somewhat conflicting view. While the agency's Chief Executive Officer, Farouk Ahmed, reported a significant decline in daily petrol importation from 44.6 million litres in August 2024 to 14.7 million litres by April 13, 2025, another official, Ogbugo Ukoha, the Executive Director, Distribution Systems, Storage and Retailing Infrastructure at the NMDPRA, had earlier stated that daily petrol consumption averaged 50 million litres, with local refineries unable to meet even 50 percent of this demand. This discrepancy raises questions about the precise current daily consumption figure, particularly against the backdrop of ongoing efforts to combat fuel smuggling.
The unfolding dispute underscores the complex dynamics within Nigeria's evolving downstream petroleum sector, marked by the emergence of a major domestic refinery and the reactions of established players in the market. As the Dangote refinery ramps up production, the debate over its capacity and its impact on the existing import-dependent system is likely to continue, with significant implications for the future of fuel supply and pricing in Nigeria.