Nigeria Cedes Top Fuel Importer Status to South Africa as Dangote Refinery Reshapes Energy Landscape
A Shift in Africa's Fuel Trade Dynamics
In a significant shift within Africa's energy sector, Nigeria has relinquished its long-held position as the continent’s leading importer of refined petroleum products. South Africa now tops the list, a development closely tied to the growing operational capacity of the Dangote Refinery—the largest single-train oil refinery in the world.
Located near Lagos and valued at $20 billion, the Dangote Refinery began large-scale production in 2024. Within a year, it has made a noticeable dent in Nigeria’s fuel import demands, altering trade flows and market dynamics across sub-Saharan Africa.
Dangote Refinery Begins to Deliver on Ambition
After years of delays and cost overruns, the refinery has finally begun to deliver on its promise: transforming Nigeria from a paradoxical oil producer dependent on fuel imports into a country taking steps toward refining self-sufficiency.
According to CITAC, an energy consultancy, Nigeria imported just 3.1 million tons of refined products in Q1 2025—a significant decline from previous years. In contrast, South Africa imported 4.2 million tons during the same period, a stark indication of the changing tide.
“Nigerian imports are dropping as a result of the continued operation of Dangote,” said Elitsa Georgieva, executive director at CITAC. “Since the beginning of this year, South African imports have been consistently highest in sub-Saharan Africa.”
This marks a turning point for Nigeria, which has long battled the inefficiencies and economic strain of exporting crude oil only to reimport refined fuel at higher costs.
South Africa’s Growing Import Dependency
While Nigeria moves toward refining more of its own fuel, South Africa finds itself increasingly reliant on foreign imports. This reversal stems from the degradation of its domestic refining infrastructure.
Industrial accidents, outdated facilities, and underinvestment have eroded the country’s refining capacity. Since 2020, nearly half of South Africa’s refining facilities have been shut down, with the Sapref refinery—the nation’s largest—remaining idle since 2022. Though the government acquired Sapref in 2023, no timeline has been announced for its restart.
In the meantime, South Africa’s import dependence has ballooned. Imports now account for more than 60% of national fuel demand. CITAC projects the country will import approximately 15.5 million tons of refined products in 2025, far surpassing Kenya’s 8.9 million tons and Nigeria’s anticipated 6.4 million tons.
A Boon for Traders, a Risk for Consumers
The gap in domestic refining has opened doors for international fuel traders. Companies such as Glencore and Vitol have increased shipments to South Africa, while Swiss trading giant Gunvor has been shortlisted to acquire Shell’s downstream assets in the country.
“South Africa’s infrastructure is mature, but its refining shortfall is now attracting foreign traders who can bridge the gap,” said one industry executive.
While this may ensure short-term supply stability, it introduces risks: heightened vulnerability to global price swings, exchange rate fluctuations, and supply chain disruptions.
Implications for Nigeria’s Economy and Energy Security
For Nigeria, the benefits of refining progress are multifaceted. Lower import dependence could support the naira, reduce pressure on foreign exchange reserves, and improve trade balances. It also holds the potential to ease the heavy fiscal burden of fuel subsidies—a long-standing issue for successive Nigerian administrations.
While the journey to full refining independence is far from over, the Dangote Refinery signals a new chapter. It also underscores a broader trend across the continent, as countries like Uganda, Angola, and Mozambique invest in domestic refining to strengthen energy sovereignty.
The Dangote project may serve as both a lesson and a benchmark—proof that despite the hurdles, Africa can build the capacity to process its own resources and begin to reshape its role in the global energy supply chain.