The vital trans-Pacific shipping lane, a crucial conduit connecting the manufacturing hubs of Asia, particularly China, with the consumer markets of North America, is once again navigating a period of significant uncertainty. The prolonged and impactful tariff conflict between the United States and China had already taken a heavy toll, nearly halving shipping volumes and causing freight rates to plummet. However, the recent announcement on May 12 by Washington and Beijing of a 90-day tariff truce has ignited expectations of a rapid surge in exports, which could strain the already limited vessel capacity. Exporters are now scrambling to move as much cargo as possible to the U.S. before the temporary reprieve concludes, even as shipping carriers grapple with shortages of essential container equipment.
The swift escalation of trade tensions following the commencement of the previous administration in the U.S. led major shipping lines to reduce their service offerings on the trans-Pacific route significantly. These carriers strategically reallocated their container equipment to alternative, more stable trade routes, notably including Vietnam. Now, this temporary ceasefire coincides with the shipping industry's peak third-quarter season, raising serious concerns about a resurgence of freight rate volatility and the potential for logjams at key U.S. ports. The Asia–North America route, with China at its core, handles approximately 17 percent of global container traffic, solidifying its position as the world’s second-busiest maritime artery.
In response to the declining demand triggered by the trade conflict, carriers had already implemented substantial capacity reductions on the U.S.–China route. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs after the late 2024 election in the U.S. cast a shadow over global logistics operations. Around the start of the year, a wave of "front-loading" emerged from China as businesses sought to ship goods ahead of anticipated tariff increases. This surge temporarily propelled the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) to an unusually high level of 2,500 on January 3, particularly for the typically slower off-season.
However, once tariffs were formally implemented following the January 20 inauguration, shipping volumes on the route experienced a sharp decline. By April, as retaliatory duties exceeded 100 percent, this contraction intensified further. According to Drewry, a London-based maritime analytics firm, "blank sailings" (canceled voyages) on Asia–North America routes surged to 24 percent between late March and early May. This resulted in a significant accumulation of unshipped cargo at major Chinese ports. As shipping volumes decreased, freight rates followed suit, with the SCFI plummeting to 1,345 by December 9—a substantial 42 percent decrease compared to the previous year.
The current tariff truce has now triggered another wave of front-loading. Industry observers anticipate heightened competition for available vessel space as exporters rush to capitalize on the temporary window. While shippers have generally welcomed the 90-day reprieve, many carriers remain hesitant to fully restore capacity to the trans-Pacific trade due to the lingering risks of a protracted and renewed U.S.–China trade dispute.
A market report released on May 12 by the Korea Ocean Business Corporation highlighted that MSC, the world’s largest container line, and Ocean Alliance, a major global shipping consortium, have both further scaled back their capacity to the Port of Los Angeles through temporary sailing cancellations, resulting in supply reductions of 28 percent and 26 percent, respectively. Gemini, another significant consortium, has reduced its capacity by 8 percent by deploying smaller vessels instead of larger ones on this route. Much of this displaced capacity has been redirected to the more stable European shipping lanes.
“Cargo owners will likely do everything they can to maximize outbound shipments to the U.S. during this window,” commented a shipping industry official. “The third quarter is traditionally the busiest season, and if that coincides with aggressive front-loading, we could very well see a bidding war for available container slots.” Rodolphe Saadé, CEO of CMA CGM, the world’s third-largest shipping line based in France, echoed this sentiment during a French Senate hearing on May 12, stating, “The tariff truce is welcome news. Since the conflict began, cargo volume bound for the U.S. has dropped by 50 percent.” Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd, another top-five global carrier, also anticipates a short-term surge in shipments from China to the U.S. as a direct consequence of this temporary ceasefire.
Despite the potential for a short-term boost in shipping activity, the inherent limitations of the trans-Pacific voyage remain a critical factor. With voyages typically taking six to eight weeks depending on port rotations, the overall volume of cargo that can be moved within the 90-day truce period is finite. This constraint is likely to further intensify the competition for the already limited available shipping capacity, creating renewed challenges and potential cost increases for businesses navigating this crucial global trade corridor.