Nigerians are bracing for a potential surge in petrol prices, with a litre of fuel possibly nearing N1,000 in the coming days. This impending increase stems from a combination of escalating international tensions driving up crude oil costs and domestic supply chain disruptions, notably a strike by tanker drivers in Lagos.
Depots Hike Prices Amidst Rising Costs
Fuel depots have already begun adjusting their pump prices for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), or petrol. This move is largely a reaction to the heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have driven up global crude oil prices. Adding to this upward pressure is a recent strike by tanker drivers operating along the vital Lekki-Epe corridor in Lagos, further complicating fuel distribution.
According to data from Petroleumprice.ng, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery saw its petrol price increase from N825 to N840 on Monday, June 16, 2025. Other major players followed suit, with Rainoil's price jumping by N50, from N850 to N900 per litre. Similarly, Fynefield and Mainland depots reportedly increased their ex-depot prices to N930 and N920, respectively, adding N51 and N63 to their previous rates. As of Monday, Sigmund was selling at N920 per litre, Matrix Warri at N910, NIPCO surged to N895 from N827 last week, and Aiteo sold petrol at N840, as shown by Petroleumprice.com.
This consistent rise in ex-depot prices strongly indicates that consumers will soon bear the brunt at retail pumps. Clement Isong, Executive Secretary of the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN), confirmed that the increase is likely a direct consequence of the climbing crude prices.
Tanker Drivers' Strike Adds Domestic Pressure
While global oil prices play a significant role, a critical domestic factor contributing to the looming price hike and potential scarcity is the ongoing dispute with tanker drivers. A depot operator, who chose to remain anonymous, revealed that tanker drivers refused to load petrol on Monday due in protest against a new N12,500 E-Call Up fee imposed by the Lagos State Government. The operator warned that if this crisis remains unresolved, Nigeria could soon experience another fuel scarcity, compounding the current pricing issues. MEMAN's Isong echoed this concern, agreeing with the tanker drivers that the new fee is excessive and will undoubtedly trigger further fuel price increases, adding to the burdens already faced by Nigerians.
Global Crude Prices Surge, Yet Local Pump Prices Remain Disjointed
Nigeria's major crude grades—Bonny Light, Brass River, and Qua Iboe—have seen a notable price rally, climbing to $77 per barrel on Friday and maintaining this surge through Monday. This uptick is directly linked to Israel’s military strikes on Iran, which have amplified fears of a broader Middle East conflict. Oilprice.com data from Monday showed Bonny Light at $78.62 per barrel, while Brass River and Qua Iboe closed at approximately $77. This marks a sharp increase from the average of $65 per barrel recorded just days earlier.
While these higher crude prices exceed the Federal Government’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75 per barrel, potentially offering short-term fiscal relief, energy analysts caution that they will inevitably lead to increased local fuel prices. This is because refiners face higher costs for crude, which is the primary feedstock for petrol and diesel production.
PENGASSAN Accuses Marketers of Exploitation
Amidst these developments, the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) has strongly criticized oil marketers, accusing them of exploiting Nigerians through inflated petrol prices. Festus Osifo, President of PENGASSAN, argued that the fair pump price for PMS should realistically range between N700 and N750 per litre.
Speaking at a world press conference in Abuja on Monday, Osifo highlighted a glaring disparity: "When the price per litre of petrol was around N900, crude oil was selling at about $80 per barrel. Today, with crude hovering between $62 and $65, there has been no commensurate reduction in the pump price." Currently, a litre of petrol sells between N875 to N905 nationwide, depending on the location.
Osifo attributed this pricing inconsistency to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA)'s failure to effectively monitor and regulate pricing under the deregulation framework. He urged the NMDPRA to promptly begin publishing pricing templates to ensure transparency and prevent arbitrary pricing.
Concerns Over Refinery Inefficiency and Divestment
Beyond pricing, Osifo also raised significant concerns about the persistent inefficiencies and recurring shutdowns of Nigeria’s state-owned refineries, particularly the Port Harcourt Refinery. He suggested these shutdowns might be more politically motivated than due to genuine operational challenges. Despite billions of naira (totaling $2.5 billion) invested in rehabilitation efforts over the years, the refineries have remained largely unproductive.
PENGASSAN also raised an alarm about worsening insecurity in Nigeria’s oil-producing areas, especially in the waterways. This escalating insecurity, the union warned, is forcing multinational oil companies to divest from the country, despite newly introduced cost-saving incentives by the Federal Government. This trend could have serious long-term implications for Nigeria's oil production capacity and revenue.