Olufemi Adeyemi 

The year 2025 is shaping up to be a defining period for Nigeria’s alcoholic beverage industry, as the country’s top three brewers—Nigerian Breweries, International Breweries, and Guinness Nigeria—engage in an increasingly intense struggle for market leadership. While Nigerian Breweries continues to lead in market share and production capacity, that dominance is being tested by agile competitors seizing on emerging trends.

International Breweries and Guinness Nigeria are making strategic inroads, capitalizing on shifting consumer tastes, operational streamlining, and targeted marketing to narrow the gap. With aggressive pricing models, innovative product lines, and regionally focused campaigns, both challengers are steadily chipping away at the long-standing leader’s hold on the market.

This brewing competition is more than a corporate rivalry—it reflects broader transformations within Nigeria’s economy. Inflationary pressures, currency volatility, and evolving social attitudes toward alcohol consumption are compelling brewers to rethink their strategies. In this fast-changing environment, adaptability has become as important as scale, and those unable to pivot may find themselves left behind.

Sales Volume: Nigerian Breweries Remains the Undisputed Leader

Despite growing competition, Nigerian Breweries continues to set the pace in terms of sales volume. In 2024, the company posted over ₦1.1 trillion in revenue—a figure that surpassed the combined total of its two main rivals. This represented an 81% increase year-over-year, underscoring its expansive distribution network and entrenched market presence.

International Breweries also reported remarkable growth, with revenue climbing 88% to ₦488.96 billion. Guinness Nigeria, though smaller in scale, achieved a solid 31% rise in revenue, reaching ₦299.49 billion for the same period.

This upward trajectory continued into the first quarter of 2025. Nigerian Breweries generated ₦383.6 billion in revenue, outpacing International Breweries' ₦173.6 billion and Guinness Nigeria’s ₦118.3 billion. Notably, Guinness showed the strongest growth rate for the quarter at 53%, signaling that it may be gaining ground in the competitive landscape.

A Return to Profit: Brewers Bounce Back After a Difficult 2024

The brewing industry suffered significant setbacks in 2024, driven largely by currency devaluation and associated foreign exchange losses. However, the early months of 2025 have brought a welcome rebound.

Nigerian Breweries reversed a ₦65.6 billion loss to post ₦69.99 billion in pre-tax profit in Q1 2025. International Breweries followed a similar trajectory, moving from a ₦89.35 billion loss to ₦35.07 billion in profit. Guinness Nigeria also turned the corner, achieving ₦10.28 billion in pre-tax earnings after a difficult previous year marked by a ₦56 billion loss.

While the scars of 2024 remain—Nigerian Breweries ended the year with a ₦182.2 billion loss, International Breweries with ₦111.8 billion, and Guinness Nigeria with ₦73.7 billion—the return to profitability is a positive signal for stakeholders. Much of this turnaround can be attributed to a more stable macroeconomic environment, particularly the easing of forex-related pressures.

Financial Strength: Nigerian Breweries’ Asset Base Still Towers Over Rivals

When it comes to financial muscle, Nigerian Breweries remains far ahead. As of March 2025, its total assets stood at ₦1.144 trillion—substantially more than International Breweries’ ₦742.93 billion and Guinness Nigeria’s ₦285.63 billion.

This deep asset base gives Nigerian Breweries a strategic edge in funding expansion, investing in technology, and weathering fluctuations in operational costs. While all three companies have shown resilience, Nigerian Breweries' size offers a degree of stability that’s hard to match.

Market Valuation and Returns: International Breweries in the Spotlight

In 2025, investor sentiment appears to be shifting. International Breweries currently holds the highest market capitalization among the three brewers at ₦1.84 trillion as of June 5, surpassing Nigerian Breweries' ₦1.76 trillion and dwarfing Guinness Nigeria’s ₦197 billion.

Shareholders have also been rewarded. International Breweries has delivered a remarkable 97% return year-to-date. Nigerian Breweries isn’t far behind with a 78% return, while Guinness Nigeria trails at 28%.

On a more holistic valuation front, International Breweries also leads in Enterprise Value (EV)—a metric that includes debt and cash on hand—reaching ₦1.77 trillion. Nigerian Breweries follows closely at ₦1.75 trillion, but its debt burden of over ₦107 billion continues to weigh down its EV. Guinness, while smaller, maintains a more modest EV of ₦246 billion.

Dividends and Retained Earnings: Guinness Nigeria Shows Signs of a Revival

Among the three, Guinness Nigeria is emerging as a potential dividend comeback story. By March 2025, the company had reduced its retained losses from –₦46.38 billion to –₦39.66 billion, a significant improvement. In comparison, Nigerian Breweries' retained losses stood at –₦126.33 billion, while International Breweries reported a steeper –₦212.57 billion.

This cleaner balance sheet could allow Guinness to resume dividend payments sooner than its rivals, a development that dividend-seeking investors are monitoring closely. If its performance trajectory continues, Guinness could reestablish itself as a shareholder-friendly company in the near term.

A Nuanced Contest: No Clear Winner Yet

Who truly leads Nigeria’s beer market in 2025? The answer depends on the lens through which you view the sector:

  • Sales and scale? Nigerian Breweries remains firmly in the lead.
  • Investor confidence and market valuation? International Breweries is setting the pace.
  • Dividend potential and financial recovery? Guinness Nigeria is quietly making a case for itself.

Each company is strategically positioned to appeal to different investor priorities—whether it's stability and scale, high returns, or the prospect of income through dividends.

As the second half of 2025 unfolds, the real test will be sustaining profitability, managing debt, and navigating ongoing economic pressures. One thing is certain: Nigeria’s beer industry is in the midst of a competitive evolution, with each player aiming not just to survive, but to lead.