Nigeria's foreign trade in the first quarter of 2025 has offered a much-needed positive signal for the economy, as the nation recorded its highest trade surplus in almost two years, reaching $5.17 trillion. This encouraging performance was primarily driven by a notable softening in imports and a renewed surge in non-oil exports.
Decoding the Numbers: A Look at the National Bureau of Statistics Report
According to the Foreign Trade Report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday, Nigeria's total trade volume for the first quarter stood at an impressive $36.02 trillion. This represents a 6.2% increase year-on-year, even with a slight dip from the previous quarter. Further breakdown of these figures reveals that exports contributed $20.6 trillion, marking a 2.9% rise from Q4 2024, while imports experienced a 7% decline, settling at $15.4 trillion.
Shifting Tides: The Evolving Landscape of Nigeria's Exports
While crude oil continued to be the primary driver of Nigeria's export earnings, accounting for over 62% of total exports at $12.96 trillion, its value saw a decrease of over $800 billion compared to the last quarter of 2024. This decline, however, was significantly cushioned by the consistent growth of non-oil exports, which climbed to $3.17 trillion. This now represents more than 15% of total exports, marking its highest share in over a year and signaling progress in the government's ongoing diversification efforts.
A standout performer in the non-oil sector was agricultural exports, which recorded a remarkable nearly 65% growth from a year earlier, reaching $1.7 trillion. Cocoa beans (both standard and superior grades) led the charge, followed by cashew nuts, sesamum seeds, and natural cocoa butter. Other key non-oil exports that saw an increase in value included urea, liquefied natural gas, and various cocoa-based products. These goods predominantly found their way to European and Asian markets, with the Netherlands, Belgium, India, and Vietnam emerging as top buyers. Notably, India was Nigeria's leading export destination, receiving $2.84 trillion worth of goods, followed by the Netherlands, the United States, France, and Spain.
Import Dynamics and Major Trading Partners
On the import front, China maintained its position as Nigeria's largest import partner, supplying goods worth $4.66 trillion, which accounts for nearly a third of all imports.
Manufactured goods imports were valued at $7.5 trillion, showing an 11% decrease from the previous quarter. Key imported items in this category included motorcycles from India, electronic devices, and chemicals sourced from China, the U.S., and Saudi Arabia. In contrast, manufactured goods exports saw a slight year-on-year improvement, rising to $294.4 billion, though they experienced a sharp drop from Q4. These exports primarily comprised aluminum alloys, dredgers, and cathodes, largely destined for Asia and Europe.
Raw material trade followed a similar trajectory. Exports more than doubled to over $1 trillion, largely propelled by urea sales to Brazil and gold to Switzerland. Conversely, raw material imports slid to $1.81 trillion, with cane sugar from Brazil and additives from the United States being among the top imported items.
Regional Trade Performance
Trade with other African countries showcased a healthy export performance of $1.85 trillion, against imports of $767 billion. South Africa, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal were the primary recipients of Nigerian goods, mainly petroleum products and fertilizers. Imports from the continent were dominated by oil, refined fuel, and animal hides from countries like Angola, Togo, and Egypt. Specifically, exports to West Africa alone totaled $1.1 trillion, while imports from the region stood at just over $213 billion.
Logistics: The Backbone of Nigeria's Trade
Maritime transport remained the overwhelmingly dominant channel for Nigeria’s international trade, handling nearly 99% of exports and over 94% of imports. The Apapa Port was the busiest hub, processing a staggering $17.7 trillion in exports and over $8 trillion in imports during the quarter.
This positive trade performance in the first quarter of 2025 provides a hopeful outlook for Nigeria's economic trajectory, particularly with the growing momentum in non-oil exports. What do you think are the most significant drivers behind this encouraging shift?