The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of APT Securities and Funds Limited, Kasimu Kurfi, has projected that the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) market capitalisation will exceed N100 trillion by the end of 2025, citing a combination of stable foreign exchange, strong corporate fundamentals, and robust primary market activity as key drivers.
Kurfi made the prediction during the Mid-Year 2025 Capital Market Review and Outlook organized by the Capital Market Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CAMCAN) in Lagos. He expressed optimism for the second half of the year, highlighting expectations of slowing inflation, a likely reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and a decline in Treasury bill yields.
“Foreign capital inflows have already surged to $5.6 billion in the first quarter of 2025, up from $3.4 billion in the same period in 2024—a 67 percent increase. Combined with exchange rate stability, this is providing significant support to the market,” Kurfi noted.
Recent Market Performance
Despite the positive outlook, last week’s trading activities showed a minor market correction. The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) and market capitalisation fell by 0.77%, closing at 144,628.20 points and N91.502 trillion respectively.
Sectoral performance highlighted the dominance of the Financial Services Industry, which accounted for 6.916 billion shares valued at N56.716 billion across 84,589 deals—representing 80.75% of total trading volume and 56.75% of total equity value. The Oil & Gas and Agriculture sectors followed, with 387.647 million shares worth N8.502 billion and 315.540 million shares worth N6.019 billion traded respectively.
Top traded equities included Universal Insurance Plc, Linkage Assurance Plc, and AIICO Insurance Plc, which collectively accounted for 2.787 billion shares worth N6.622 billion, representing over 32% of total equity turnover by volume.
While most NGX indices closed lower, the NGX Insurance Index, NGX AFR Div. Yield Index, and NGX Growth Index recorded appreciable gains of 8.21%, 1.57%, and 9.50% respectively.
Drivers of the Market Rally
Kurfi attributed the ongoing rally in the stock market to several factors, including the elimination of foreign exchange-related losses. In 2024, listed firms recorded pre-tax FX losses of N507.2 billion, but the stable exchange rate in 2025 has prevented similar losses, significantly boosting investor confidence.
He also pointed to the positive impact of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA 25) on insurance stocks, as well as the CBN’s bank recapitalisation programme, which has revitalized the primary market. The programme attracted over N2 trillion in 2024, with comparable volumes expected in 2025.
Investment Guidance
For investors, Kurfi recommended a focus on blue-chip equities with strong fundamentals, particularly insurance companies that have diversified into asset management. He also advised portfolio diversification to include fixed-income instruments as a hedge against inflation and naira devaluation, noting that the capital market remains one of the most effective tools for wealth preservation in the current economic climate.