Nigeria is stepping up efforts to restore its position as Africa’s leading oil producer, with the Federal Government declaring that crude oil output is firmly on track to hit 2.5 million barrels per day by 2026. The strategy, anchored by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), is built around unlocking deepwater reserves, reviving dormant fields, and fast-tracking approvals for new projects.
The Chief Executive of NUPRC, Gbenga Komolafe, gave the update on Thursday in Abuja while delivering a goodwill message at the 2025 PENGASSAN Energy and Labour Summit, themed “Building a Resilient Oil and Gas Sector in Nigeria: Advancing HSE, ESG, Investment, and Incremental Production.”
Komolafe noted that the reforms introduced under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 and recent Presidential Executive Orders have positioned Nigeria as a more attractive investment hub, reducing average contracting cycles from 36 months to just six months while also improving fiscal terms for investors.
He highlighted the commission’s ongoing “Project One Million Barrels Per Day” initiative, which is designed to boost incremental production through collaboration with operators and service firms. Central to this plan is a new “cluster and nodal development strategy”, leveraging shared infrastructure and tiebacks to Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) units such as Bonga, Egina, and Agbami.
“In the area of incremental production, NUPRC has been spearheading initiatives that directly support the one million barrels per day target. A recent Deepwater Technical Stakeholders’ Workshop forged a common agenda for unlocking more than 810,000 barrels per day in potential peak output from approved deep offshore development plans,” Komolafe said.
Already, production has climbed from 1.46 million barrels per day in October 2024 to about 1.8 million barrels today, driven by the reactivation of dormant fields, accelerated approvals, and improved recovery techniques. “With this momentum, we are firmly on track to reach our 2.5 million barrels per day target by 2026,” Komolafe affirmed.
Balancing Energy Transition and Growth
While acknowledging the global push toward renewables, Komolafe stressed that hydrocarbons will remain a dominant part of the global energy mix for decades, especially in developing regions. Citing international data, he noted that investment in low-carbon energy exceeded $1.7 trillion in 2023 and rose another 24% in 2024 to $2.1 trillion.
Nevertheless, Nigeria’s approach, he said, would be a “gas-centric decarbonisation pathway”, balancing climate concerns with the country’s economic realities and energy security needs.
Marginal Fields Under Review
On licensing matters, Komolafe announced the completion of a case-by-case review of marginal field licenses that are due for renewal. He clarified that awards from the 2020 marginal field round, which preceded NUPRC’s establishment, were subject to performance-based evaluation under the PIA.
“Every award is tied to specific milestones. A technical assessment was conducted transparently on a case-by-case basis, using defined criteria shared with all operators. An expert team reviewed and scored each field holder accordingly,” he explained.
The outcome of this review has been submitted to the Minister of State for Petroleum (Oil) for approval. Komolafe assured that only companies that met the required milestones would have their licenses renewed, reinforcing the regulator’s commitment to transparency and merit-based processes.
Industry Outlook
Industry observers view these reforms as critical to restoring investor confidence in Nigeria’s oil sector, which has been hampered in recent years by underinvestment, operational bottlenecks, and security challenges. With deepwater potential, improved fiscal frameworks, and renewed focus on gas, analysts suggest that Nigeria could be entering a new phase of competitiveness in global oil markets.