The bullish forecast comes despite concerns over rising price pressures in the semiconductor industry, which for decades has been treated like a commodity market.
“AI demand from the end user is pretty much, very firm and strong,” said Choi Joon-yong, head of HBM business planning at SK Hynix, in an interview with Reuters. He added that the billions in AI capital spending planned by cloud giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google will likely be revised upward in the coming years—a trend that would be “positive” for the HBM sector.
HBM as a Strategic Growth Engine
HBM, a form of DRAM first introduced in 2013, stacks memory chips vertically to save space and reduce power consumption, enabling faster data processing for complex AI workloads. SK Hynix projects the custom HBM market could be worth tens of billions of dollars by 2030.
The next generation of HBM—such as the upcoming HBM4—will integrate customer-specific logic chips, known as “base dies,” that manage memory functions. This design shift makes it harder for customers to swap between rival suppliers, creating new opportunities for bespoke product development.
“Each customer has different taste,” Choi said, noting that while major clients like Nvidia currently receive highly customized products, smaller buyers still use a standard configuration. SK Hynix is Nvidia’s primary HBM supplier, with Samsung Electronics and Micron Technology supplying in smaller quantities.
Last week, Samsung cautioned that current-generation HBM3E supply could outpace demand growth in the short term, potentially pressuring prices. Choi, however, expressed confidence in SK Hynix’s ability to deliver competitive products.
U.S. Tariff Talk Looms in the Background
The outlook comes amid trade policy uncertainty. U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that his administration would impose a 100% tariff on semiconductor chips imported from countries not manufacturing in the U.S. or committed to doing so.
The proposal is not yet a formal policy, and Trump gave no additional details. South Korea’s trade envoy Yeo Han-koo later said Samsung and SK Hynix would likely be exempt, citing their significant U.S. investments—Samsung in Texas fabrication plants, and SK Hynix in an advanced chip packaging facility and AI R&D center in Indiana.
South Korea’s chip exports to the U.S. totaled $10.7 billion last year, or 7.5% of the nation’s total chip exports. HBM exports to Taiwan for packaging surged 127% in 2024 to account for 18% of South Korea’s total chip shipments.
Strong Market Performance
Investor confidence in SK Hynix remains robust. Shares closed 4.1% higher on Monday, lifting year-to-date gains to 53.5%, well ahead of the KOSPI index’s 33.6% rise. Samsung Electronics shares are up 33.5% so far in 2025, while Micron has gained 41.3%.