Nigeria’s economy is showing strong signs of a genuine and sustained recovery, according to Bismarck Rewane, chief executive officer of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) Limited. Speaking at the Lagos Business School (LBS) breakfast session themed “Reality Check: Is Nigeria’s Economic Recovery Authentic? Yes, It Is,” the renowned economist said the country’s growth trajectory is backed by improving macroeconomic indicators and renewed investor confidence.
Rewane explained that the current phase marks a rebound in the economic cycle — a period when growth resumes following contraction. He pointed to steady gains in gross domestic product (GDP), stabilising inflation, and a stronger employment outlook as evidence that Nigeria’s recovery is both real and sustainable.
Comparing present figures to those of the previous year, Rewane noted that several critical indicators have improved. The pump price of petrol, which had surged to ₦985 per litre following the removal of fuel subsidies, has moderated to ₦841 as of October 2025. Likewise, the foreign exchange (FX) rate has appreciated significantly — from ₦1,900 per dollar in February 2024 to ₦1,488 in October 2025 — following reforms and liberalisation in the FX market.
Inflation, which reached a 34 percent peak in December 2024, has eased to 20.12 percent as of August 2025. Meanwhile, real GDP growth strengthened from 3.48 percent in the second quarter (Q2) of 2024 to 4.23 percent in Q2 2025, marking the highest rate in four years.
“Unlike past recoveries that were short-lived, this one appears to be entering a phase of dynamic equilibrium,” Rewane said, noting that “key variables are stabilising while investor and consumer confidence continue to rise.” He also highlighted the narrowing exchange rate gap — now down to ₦24 between the official and parallel markets — as a sign of improving market alignment.
However, he cautioned that certain vulnerabilities still threaten the country’s economic progress. These include a potential drop in global oil prices to as low as $60 per barrel, reversals in foreign portfolio inflows, persistent price distortions, and unresolved issues in the power sector.
Rewane also raised concerns about Nigeria’s spiralling cost of governance, which he described as a major impediment to investment and capital formation. “The cost of governance stood at ₦27.7 billion in 1998 under military rule; it has ballooned to ₦54.99 trillion in 2025,” he said, stressing that fiscal prudence is essential for sustaining recovery.
To consolidate gains, the FDC CEO urged the federal government to embark on targeted structural reforms — including debt forbearance in the power sector, tax efficiency under new tax laws, and incentive-driven policies to stimulate domestic investment. He also advocated the concessioning of airports and seaports and the sale of non-performing government-owned refineries.
Rewane concluded that while Nigeria’s economy is finally on a firm recovery path, sustaining the momentum will require discipline, reform consistency, and a decisive cut in wasteful government expenditure.