According to data released by the Federal Statistics Office on Friday, exports rose by 1.4% month-on-month, outperforming analysts’ forecasts of a 0.5% increase. The rise was driven largely by renewed demand from the United States, where shipments from Germany jumped 11.9%, marking the first monthly increase after five consecutive declines.
The recovery, however, comes against a backdrop of continued trade uncertainty. German exports remain below their March 2025 levels—before U.S. President Donald Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” announcement of blanket tariffs on all trading partners, a move that roiled global markets, forced companies to delay IPOs, and sparked retaliatory measures worldwide.
“Given the ongoing structural challenges, it currently requires a lot of imagination to see a quick return of the export sector as a powerful growth engine for the German economy,” said Carsten Brzeski, Global Head of Macro at ING.
While exports improved, imports also climbed 3.1%, suggesting stronger domestic demand and higher input costs. The trade surplus narrowed to €15.3 billion ($17.8 billion) in September, compared to €18.0 billion a year earlier.
Trade with the European Union showed modest growth, rising 2.5% month-on-month, while exports to non-EU countries remained flat. Exports to China dipped 2.2%, but imports from the Asian powerhouse surged 6.1%, reflecting the shifting flow of goods amid the ongoing U.S.–China tariff confrontation.
Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, noted that despite the September uptick, the damage to transatlantic trade remains visible. “It shows the deep wounds tariffs have inflicted on exporters in our most important export destination,” he said.
With import levels accelerating and protectionist pressures mounting, European industry leaders are urging Brussels to adopt stronger measures to safeguard local businesses and jobs. Analysts caution, however, that while the September rebound may signal stabilization, Germany’s export engine remains vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and shifting trade alliances.