Nigeria’s reliance on imported refined petroleum products is showing a dramatic shift as domestic refining capacity grows, with imports from Malta dropping sharply in 2024. According to TradeMap data, Nigeria’s imports of petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals from the small Mediterranean island fell to around $818 million, down from over $2.1 billion in 2023—a decline of nearly 60 percent.
The sudden surge in imports from Malta in 2023 had raised eyebrows in the energy sector. Between 2017 and 2022, Nigeria had recorded virtually no imports from Malta. Analysts at the time linked the spike to unconventional supply routes and alleged blending operations. Aliko Dangote, chairman of Dangote Industries, suggested that some personnel from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, along with oil traders and terminals, had reportedly established a blending facility in Malta. The situation prompted concerns about transparency, foreign exchange outflows, and the integrity of the supply chain.
The Dangote Refinery Effect
The sharp decline in Malta-origin imports now reflects the growing influence of domestic refining, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Africa’s largest single-train refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, began producing diesel and aviation fuel in early 2024, with petrol output following shortly thereafter. Energy analysts attribute the drop in imports largely to this increased local supply.
A report tracking Nigeria’s petrol imports showed that by the first quarter of 2025, the country’s petrol import bill had fallen by 54 percent year-on-year. Similarly, shipping data indicated that seaborne imports of clean petroleum products declined roughly 39 percent in the first seven months of 2025, coinciding with Dangote’s refinery ramp-up.
“As domestic refining builds up, importation of refined petroleum products becomes less urgent,” said Jide Pratt, country manager of TradeGrid and COO of AIONA. He noted, however, that the country’s reliance on a single major refinery introduces operational risk. “The greatest risk is that every time the Dangote Refinery undergoes maintenance due to RFCC shutdowns, production of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) can drop from 70 percent capacity to about 30 percent.”
Shaping Nigeria’s Fuel Landscape
The reduction in imports from Malta mirrors Nigeria’s broader efforts to bolster domestic fuel production. Dangote’s refinery, located in Lagos, has steadily scaled up petrol output, helping to reduce the country’s dependence on European imports. Recent reports indicate that total seaborne petrol imports in 2025 have reached an eight-year low, with domestic production increasingly meeting local demand.
This growing domestic capacity is positioning Nigeria to become a net exporter of refined petroleum products—a milestone the country has not achieved for decades. While the refinery’s output currently supplies much of the local market, the future of other NNPC-owned refineries remains uncertain, leaving a gap in the diversification of domestic refining.
Crude Oil Loadings Softening
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s crude oil export activity has shown signs of moderation. Data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea revealed that seaborne crude oil loadings averaged 1.676 million barrels per day in October 2025, the lowest monthly figure since April. Loadings have declined for the second consecutive month, following September’s 1.756 million bpd and August’s 1.861 million bpd, while the peak of 2025 was recorded in June at 1.873 million bpd.
The combination of rising domestic refining capacity and moderated crude exports illustrates a significant realignment in Nigeria’s oil and fuel sector, as local production increasingly offsets imports and reshapes the country’s position in regional and global energy markets.