Brent crude futures were down slightly by 4 cents at $62.44 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 5 cents to $58 per barrel as of 11:32 a.m. ET (1632 GMT). The modest movements came despite fresh data indicating a significant increase in U.S. crude inventories.
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude stocks rose by 2.8 million barrels last week, reaching 426.9 million barrels. Analysts had anticipated only a marginal 55,000-barrel increase. The rise coincided with a surge in imports, which climbed by 1.05 million barrels per day (bpd) to 2.84 million bpd—the highest level since early September.
John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, highlighted the implications of the data, saying, “We are definitely on the road to a rather healthy supply glut, there is no doubt about it, and the crude build is indicative of that.”
Adding to the market backdrop, sources from OPEC+ indicated that the coalition is likely to maintain current production levels when it meets this Sunday, signaling no immediate move to counter the expanding U.S. supply.
On the geopolitical front, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) reported that it had resumed oil loadings overnight after suspending operations earlier in the week due to a Ukrainian drone attack. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told European leaders that a U.S.-backed framework for ending the war with Russia is nearly finalized, with only a few points of disagreement remaining.
Analysts noted that the potential peace deal could have a downward effect on oil prices. Tony Sycamore, IG market analyst, commented, “If finalized, the deal could rapidly dismantle Western sanctions on Russian energy exports. For now, the market waits for more clarity, but the risk appears to be for lower prices unless talks falter.”
Priyanka Sachdeva, an analyst at Phillip Nova, added that “the market remains fundamentally skewed to the downside, with investors increasingly pricing in an oversupplied 2026 and no convincing demand catalyst to offset it.”
The U.S. political dimension also continues to influence the market. Former President Donald Trump said he had instructed representatives to meet separately with Russian and Ukrainian officials, and Ukrainian authorities suggested that Zelenskiy could visit the United States soon to finalize the deal.
Meanwhile, Western sanctions on Russian energy exports have tightened, and Indian purchases of Russian crude are projected to fall to a three-year low in December, reflecting the ongoing reshaping of global trade flows.
Overall, oil markets remain caught between rising inventories, geopolitical uncertainty, and the possibility of new supply from Russia if a peace framework is implemented—leaving investors cautious and prices largely range-bound.