The company attributed its revised outlook to a combination of factors — including weakened policy support for green energy in the United States, the resurgence of coal power in Asia, and a global slowdown in electric vehicle sales. TotalEnergies’ forecast contrasts sharply with more aggressive net-zero pathways from international agencies that predict an earlier peak in fossil fuel consumption.
The 2025 TotalEnergies Energy Outlook sets out three possible pathways: a “current trends” scenario that assumes limited policy change, a more ambitious “momentum” scenario, and a “rupture” scenario aligned with the Paris Agreement’s climate goals.
However, CEO Patrick Pouyanné said that achieving the Paris-aligned trajectory was becoming “increasingly out of reach” due to geopolitical fragmentation and insufficient global coordination on emissions reduction.
“We can present this rupture scenario, but given the level of political fragmentation, the probability of its success is diminishing,” Pouyanné said at a press briefing in Paris.
Under the baseline scenario, TotalEnergies projects oil demand will rise nearly 5% to 108 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2040, led by industrial growth in India and emerging Asian economies, before falling modestly to 98 million bpd by 2050. In the “momentum” case, demand would decline more sharply to 79 million bpd, while the Paris-aligned pathway envisions a steeper fall to 55 million bpd by mid-century.
Pouyanné said the company had deliberately avoided naming a specific year for “peak oil demand,” noting ongoing internal debate over whether it would occur in the early or late 2030s.
The report also highlights shifting dynamics in global energy leadership. Whereas last year’s edition described the United States as leading the energy transition, this year’s analysis places China at the forefront.
“China in 10 years has become the clean tech superpower — the new energy supermajor — and it’s spectacular,” Pouyanné said. “They must have an 80% market share in all the technologies we need tomorrow.”
The report projects global natural gas demand to rise about 10% to 4,620 billion cubic metres by 2050, while electricity consumption is expected to nearly double to 57,140 terawatt hours, driven by the transport and cooling sectors.
In an emerging trend, data centres and artificial intelligence operations are expected to account for roughly 7% of global electricity demand by 2050, though Pouyanné cautioned that AI’s power needs remain “difficult to predict.”
TotalEnergies’ latest forecast underscores the growing tension between energy security, affordability, and decarbonisation — as nations struggle to balance near-term economic pressures with long-term climate goals.