Brent crude futures were up 15 cents, or 0.25%, at $61.27 a barrel by 0924 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 15 cents, or 0.26%, to $57.59 a barrel. Both contracts had fallen more than 4% over the previous week, pressured by forecasts of a global oil surplus in 2026.
John Evans, an analyst at PVM, noted that “the grind lower in oil prices and the month-to-date lows across major futures last week might have been even more pronounced if not for the United States’ recent actions regarding Venezuela.”
Tensions between Washington and Caracas have intensified after the U.S. seized a Venezuelan tanker last week and imposed new sanctions on shipping companies and vessels engaged with the Latin American oil exporter. Shipping data and maritime sources indicate that Venezuela’s oil exports have already fallen sharply as a result. Reuters reports that U.S. authorities plan to intercept additional vessels carrying Venezuelan crude, adding further pressure on President Nicolas Maduro’s government.
At the same time, developments in Ukraine added another layer of complexity for the oil market. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signaled a willingness to drop his country’s bid to join NATO during five hours of talks with U.S. envoys in Berlin on Sunday. Negotiations are expected to continue on Monday. While U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff said “a lot of progress was made,” no further details were provided. Analysts note that a potential peace deal could eventually allow increased Russian oil exports, which have been constrained by Western sanctions.
“Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have swung between optimism and caution, while tensions between Venezuela and the U.S. are escalating, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions,” said Tsuyoshi Ueno, senior economist at NLI Research Institute.
Despite these geopolitical factors, expectations of a longer-term surplus continue to weigh on prices. JPMorgan Commodities Research highlighted that global oil supply is projected to outpace demand through 2026, expanding at roughly three times the rate of demand growth. The bank forecasts that expected surpluses in 2025 will widen further into 2026 and 2027, suggesting that the market may face persistent downward pressure in the years ahead.
For now, traders remain caught between near-term risks to supply and longer-term structural imbalances, keeping oil prices relatively stable but closely monitored.