Nigeria’s crude oil production ceiling will remain unchanged for the next two years following a renewed decision by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The group has upheld the country’s quota at 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) until December 2026, reaffirming a resolution first reached in late 2024.
The extension was confirmed after the 40th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, where member states participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) agreed to retain existing production levels. The organisation also endorsed a new methodology designed by the OPEC Secretariat to determine each country’s maximum sustainable production capacity — a key benchmark that will guide output baselines from 2027.
Oversight will continue through the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which is tasked with tracking market trends, compliance levels, and conformity to agreed production targets. The next ministerial meeting is scheduled for June 7, 2026.
Major Producers Hold Off on 2026 Output Growth
In a related development, OPEC announced that eight members of the wider OPEC+ coalition — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — have agreed to freeze previously planned output increases for the first quarter of 2026. The decision, attributed to seasonal demand patterns, means the alliance will maintain its restraint on a 137,000 bpd increase that had been scheduled for December 2025.
These countries had introduced additional voluntary cuts in 2023, amounting to 1.65 million bpd. According to the group, the withheld volumes may be reinstated “in part or in full,” depending on how global market conditions evolve, and any restoration would occur gradually. The producers also reiterated their commitment to fully offset any overproduction accumulated since January 2024.
The eight-country bloc will continue monthly reviews of market indicators, compliance progress, and compensation status, with the next assessment slated for January 4, 2026.
The decisions underscore a cautious approach by OPEC and its partners as they navigate uncertain global demand trajectories, price volatility and broader economic pressures.