Data from the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) and informal trading desks point to continued relative stability in the foreign exchange market, supported by sustained policy interventions from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Official Market Performance (NFEM)
At the official window, the Naira opened at ₦1,339.18 per dollar, reflecting a modest appreciation from the previous session’s closing rate of ₦1,343.36 on Sunday.
Early Monday trading saw the exchange rate fluctuate within a narrow band, touching an intraday high of ₦1,342.98 before strengthening again. The movement signals ongoing price discovery but within a controlled corridor.
The official mean rate for February currently stands around ₦1,346.32, indicating that Monday’s early performance is slightly stronger than the month’s average.
The CBN has consistently pointed to its updated macroeconomic outlook as a guiding framework for exchange rate management, emphasizing liquidity support and market transparency.
Parallel Market Trends
In the parallel market, the dollar continues to trade at a slim premium over the official rate. As of Monday morning, informal traders quoted rates between ₦1,355 and ₦1,362 per dollar.
The gap between the official and informal windows remains historically narrow. Analysts attribute this convergence to improved FX liquidity and the absence of intense speculative demand that had characterized earlier quarters.
While the so-called “black market” still caters to urgent retail transactions, the improved stability at the NFEM has significantly reduced reliance on high-premium informal trades.
Key Market Drivers
Several domestic and external factors are shaping the Dollar-to-Naira trajectory this week:
Liquidity Support:
The CBN’s steady supply of foreign exchange to Bureau De Change (BDC) operators and authorized dealers has absorbed excess retail demand, preventing sharp depreciation pressures.
Interest Rate Environment:
With the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) held at 27.00%, Nigeria’s elevated interest rate environment continues to attract carry-trade inflows, providing structural support for the Naira.
Inflation Moderation:
Nigeria’s inflation rate eased to 15.10% in January 2026, signaling a gradual deceleration from the peaks recorded in 2024 and 2025. Slower inflation has contributed to improved currency sentiment.
Outlook for the Week
Market analysts expect the Naira to trade within the ₦1,335 to ₦1,350 range at the official window through the remainder of the week, assuming global oil prices remain stable and domestic crude production meets output targets.
For now, tighter spreads between official and parallel markets, firm monetary policy, and continued liquidity injections suggest a cautiously stable near-term outlook for the Naira—though external shocks or shifts in oil dynamics could quickly alter the balance.