Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Quarterly Statistics (December 2025) revealed that total exports in the first nine months of 2025 reached $44.06 billion, surpassing the $40.29 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. This represents a year-on-year increase of $3.76 billion, reflecting stronger trade performance and supporting the local currency amid calls for inclusive economic gains.
Breaking down the figures, July 2025 emerged as the strongest month, with exports valued at $5.85 billion, followed by May 2025 at $5.18 billion. By comparison, January 2024 was the peak month at $5.04 billion, with August 2024 at $4.68 billion. The weakest months in 2024 were September at $3.86 billion and May at $4.27 billion, while March 2025 ($4.54 billion) and January 2025 ($4.59 billion) were the lowest in the current year. The widest monthly gap between the two years occurred in July, with a $1.26 billion difference, while August recorded the narrowest at just $28.34 million.
The improved export performance coincides with renewed stability in the foreign exchange market. The naira recently closed at 1,351.02 per U.S. dollar at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, continuing a trend of appreciation and reflecting growing investor confidence. Stakeholders say that the stronger export receipts underpin the currency’s resilience, although structural bottlenecks continue to limit the full transmission of benefits to households and businesses.
Oil Remains the Dominant Driver
Industry experts attribute the growth in export earnings to a combination of stronger crude oil shipments, increased petroleum product exports, and a gradual uptick in non-oil exports. Segun Kuti-George, National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists (NASSI), described the trend as encouraging, noting its direct link to improved foreign exchange dynamics.
“My assessment of the export performance based on the CBN figures is positive. The export growth performance is good news,” Kuti-George said. “There is an increase in the export of crude and petroleum products, and non-oil exports have also contributed significantly. This is already showing a positive impact not only on the exchange rate of the naira but also on other aspects of the economy.”
He added that the strengthening of export receipts has helped stabilize the naira after a prolonged period of volatility. “We are witnessing stability and even appreciation of the naira against the dollar, which is a positive development,” he noted.
Naira Shows Steady Appreciation
Recent movements at the official exchange window reinforce this view. The naira sustained its upward trend, gaining about 20.36 naira over the preceding week to close at 1,366.19 per dollar before settling at 1,351.02. Analysts attribute the improved performance to strong supply from both foreign portfolio investors and local market participants, coupled with enhanced dollar liquidity.
Stakeholders highlight that export growth plays a critical role in augmenting foreign exchange supply, easing pressure on the local currency. Dr. Bamidele Ayemibo, former Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry Export Group, emphasized that rising export figures indicate the effectiveness of current export strategies.
“The figure is looking up, which I think is commendable. The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) strategies are showing results,” Ayemibo said. He referenced recent NEPC data highlighting a record non-oil export performance of $6.1 billion, underscoring that Nigeria is making progress despite still underperforming relative to its economic size and global peers.
Structural Factors Behind Export Growth
Analysts point to several structural factors driving the improved export trajectory. Increased crude oil output and enhanced security in oil-producing regions have boosted shipments, while refining activities and petroleum product exports have expanded. Policy reforms aimed at unifying exchange rates and improving forex market transparency have also strengthened investor confidence.
Dr. Ayemibo stressed that sustained export growth could further enhance Nigeria’s reserves and the value of the naira, particularly if non-oil exports are prioritized. “Exports can strengthen the naira and expand reserves, but institutional support is critical. NEPC and NEXIM require adequate funding and facilities to help exporters reach their full potential,” he said.
He also cautioned that Nigeria’s heavy reliance on oil, foreign direct investment, and portfolio inflows limits the development of a robust, diversified export base.
Ripple Effects on the Real Sector
Export growth has broader implications for the manufacturing sector. Dr. Benedict Obhiosa, Secretary of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria Export Promotion Group, said stronger exports bolster the macroeconomic environment and reduce exchange rate pressure on manufacturers.
“Export growth makes expenses denominated in dollars more affordable for manufacturers, lowering the cost of importing machinery and critical inputs,” he explained. “If this trend continues in 2026, it will be very beneficial for industrial production.”
Calls for Inclusive Growth
Despite macroeconomic improvements, stakeholders emphasized the need for gains to reach ordinary Nigerians. Kuti-George highlighted that currency stability and appreciation could lower import costs and consumer prices over time, easing production costs and moderating prices of goods.
However, Obhiosa noted persistent gaps between macro indicators and lived realities, citing rising rents and high commodity prices despite exchange rate stability. “Market behavior in Nigeria often defies classical economic theory,” he said, stressing the importance of regulatory oversight and competition to ensure macro gains translate into tangible benefits for households.
Stakeholders agreed that export growth alone cannot resolve deep-seated structural challenges. They called on the Federal Government to provide stronger policy support and funding to export institutions to unlock Nigeria’s full potential. LCCI’s Ayemibo reiterated that export-led growth remains one of the most viable paths to strengthening reserves, stabilizing the naira, and driving inclusive economic expansion.