Net foreign exchange inflow into the Nigerian economy declined by 18.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to $48.1 billion in the nine months ended September 2025, compared with $58.8 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. The contraction reflects a sharper fall in gross inflows, which more than offset the improvement recorded on the outflow side.
CBN data on foreign exchange flows for the third quarter of 2025 showed that total forex inflows fell by 15 per cent YoY to $83.71 billion in the nine-month period, down from $99.44 billion a year earlier. Over the same period, total foreign exchange outflows declined by 12.2 per cent YoY to $35.65 billion, compared with $40.61 billion in 9M’24.
A closer look at the sources of inflows highlights a significant weakening in transactions routed through the CBN. Forex inflows via the Bank dropped sharply by 30 per cent YoY to $28.72 billion in 9M’25, from $40.15 billion in the same period of 2024. Inflows through autonomous sources—which include exporters, investors, and remittances—also declined, though at a slower pace of 6.8 per cent YoY, to $54.99 billion from $59.29 billion.
On the outflow side, transactions through the CBN fell by 18.8 per cent YoY to $25.68 billion, compared with $32.16 billion a year earlier. In contrast, outflows through autonomous sources increased by 18 per cent YoY to $9.97 billion, up from $8.44 billion in the corresponding period of 2024.
As a result of these movements, net foreign exchange flow through the CBN declined steeply by 62 per cent YoY to $3.04 billion in 9M’25, from $7.99 billion in the previous year. Net flows through autonomous sources also weakened, falling by 11.5 per cent YoY to $45.02 billion, compared with $50.85 billion in 9M’24.
IMTO inflows weaken autonomous supply
Further analysis indicates that inflows from International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs)—a key pillar of autonomous forex supply—also deteriorated during the period, underscoring ongoing pressures on diaspora remittances.
CBN figures show that IMTO inflows declined by 15.7 per cent YoY to $3.22 billion in the nine months ended September 2025, down from $3.82 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. The decline was broad-based across all three quarters of the year.
In the first quarter of 2025, IMTO inflows fell by 18 per cent YoY to $888.3 million, compared with $1.08 billion in Q1’24. This was followed by a 6.5 per cent YoY decline in the second quarter to $1.18 billion, from $1.26 billion a year earlier. The third quarter saw a sharper contraction, with inflows dropping by 22 per cent YoY to $1.15 billion, compared with $1.48 billion in Q3’24.
The sustained slowdown in IMTO inflows contributed to the overall moderation in autonomous forex supply, despite policy initiatives aimed at incentivising diaspora remittances through formal channels.
Q3 rebound offers mild relief
Quarterly trends, however, suggest a tentative improvement toward the end of the period. Net forex inflow declined by 6.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q1’25 and by a further 4.1 per cent QoQ in Q2’25. This downward trajectory reversed in the third quarter, when net inflow rose by 20 per cent QoQ.
According to the CBN’s Q3’25 Quarterly Economic Report, the economy recorded a higher net foreign exchange inflow in the third quarter, largely due to a sharp reduction in outflows through the Bank.
Net foreign exchange inflow increased to $17.46 billion in Q3’25, from $14.46 billion in the preceding quarter. While aggregate forex inflows declined marginally by 4.17 per cent to $26.27 billion from $27.41 billion in Q2’25, total outflows fell more significantly by 32.01 per cent to $8.80 billion, compared with $12.94 billion in the previous quarter—providing some relief to the external sector.