Keyamo acknowledged that some regions, including Lagos, Rivers, and Bayelsa states, have experienced early rain, but he stressed that the true rainy season is still pending. He also cautioned that extreme weather conditions are expected between March and May this year, reinforcing the need for caution among agricultural stakeholders and residents.
The 2026 SCP, as presented by NiMet, predicts significant rainfall across the southern regions of Nigeria in 2026, alongside early onset, early cessation, and periods of extreme weather. The report forecasts an early onset of rain in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba states. In contrast, a late onset is expected in Borno State.
The report further anticipates rainfall cessation earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, and Niger states. Conversely, a delayed end to the rainy season is expected in Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, and Kaduna states. In terms of season length, a longer-than-normal rainy season is projected for Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe, and Taraba states. Meanwhile, parts of Borno, Yobe, and Niger states are expected to experience a shorter-than-normal rainy season.
Overall, the report anticipates normal annual rainfall across most parts of Nigeria compared to long-term averages. However, above-normal rainfall is expected in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom states, and the Federal Capital Territory. Below-normal rainfall is predicted for parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun states.
NiMet also highlighted the likelihood of severe dry spells lasting more than 15 days during the March to May period in parts of Oyo and Ogun states. Moderate dry spells are expected in Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River, Delta, and parts of Kwara. During the June–July–August season, the agency predicts severe dry spells of up to 21 days in parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara states.
The report also anticipates the Little Dry Season (LDS), commonly known as the “August Break,” to begin in late July. NiMet predicts that the break will be severe and prolonged over Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo states, with little or no rainfall expected for 28 to 40 days. A moderate LDS effect is expected in Ondo and parts of Kwara and Edo states.
Speaking at the event, the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Dr. Yakubu Adam Farmata, said the SCP is a flagship platform for strengthening the interface between climate science and national development planning. He described the unveiling of the Seasonal Climate Prediction as more than a scientific exercise, framing it as a strategic national engagement aimed at providing decision-makers with credible, timely, and actionable climate information.